Movie studios pulling their movies too?

[Frank Cox]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts...office-strike/

Relevant portion of the article:

If you didn’t get swept up in the funthis past weekend, though, here’s one more piece of sort-of-good news: you will have plenty of time to get in on it yet. Because the way things are looking, there won’t be another bona-fide blockbuster weekend at the movies for months. Maybe even not till 2024.

Just as movie theatre owners were showering themselves with celebratory buckets of melted butter this weekend, they had to also reconcile their box-office receipts with the news that MGM and Amazon Studios on Friday decided to pull the upcoming Zendaya-starring tennis romance Challengers from its September release and punt it to spring next year.

At the same time, rumours are running rampant that Warner Bros. is considering pushing its big fall and winter titles – including Dune: Part Two and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom – to dates unknown. It is anyone’s guess until rival outfits like Universal, Paramount and Disney consider pulling similar moves.

Suddenly, what was already a lightly scheduled fall movie season – there aren’t any films coming up in August, September or October that could hope to do the kind of blockbuster business of Barbenheimer – is looking as depressing as a bare shelf at Dollarama.

The studios would like moviegoers to blame all of this on the SAG-AFTRA strike, which along with the ongoing Writers Guild of America labour action, has shut Hollywood down.

Given that the SAG-AFTRA strike prohibits actors from not only showing up on set but also performing promotional duties for their films – including festival appearances, media junkets, red carpets and social media posts – studios think that if there are no famous faces out there marketing their wares, then audience awareness for new releases will be dire. Better to wait until the strike is settled and it’s business as usual.

So.... what? We'll be back to having no new movies at all to play this fall like the situation we went through during the pandemic?

I tried playing "old movies" during that pandemic drought and discovered that almost nobody comes to see them.

[Frank Angel]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts...office-strike/

Relevant portion of the article:


So.... what? We'll be back to having no new movies at all to play this fall like the situation we went through during the pandemic?

I tried playing "old movies" during that pandemic drought and discovered that almost nobody comes to see them.

It was hard enough to get people to come to old movies, even the great classics, pre-covid. Take it from some of us who ran retrospective/arthouse fare. The came covid combined with the explosion of streaming services and it taught movie-gowers that watching movies at home with a fairly decent system was a pretty good experience after all. Many people discovered that watching films without strangers in a dark theatre but instead with family and friends wasn't all that bad despite exhibitor's mantra that for a film to be "rewarding," somehow you need the "communal experience" -- you know...a bunch of strangers always a few of them rude and even more of them on their freakin cellphones. Even if past weekend's two releases -- Barbenheimer (who came up with this silly?) have SOME, not all, exhibitors running down the road with palettes of money on flat-bed trucks to the bank, it certainly isn't heralding in a new era of a wild uptick trend in theatre attendance. There is still the home theatre and still enough streaming services that your thumb can cramp up before you click thru them all. Regardless of all the money rolling in last weekend for these two titles, my gut says, a bright star in the east portending a long trend in box office blockbuster business, it aint. Those days are gone.

[Leo Enticknap]

The cynic in me wonders if this is part of a "starve them into submission" strategy. As long as the movies go unreleased, the actors and writers don't get their cut of the gross, or any residuals.

[Frank Angel]

Like dirty union busting tactics like that have never been used before? I wouldn't call it the cynic in you but rather the musings of a wise man who has seen life!

[Mike Blakesley]

The old movies might do some business if the studios would put a little marketing muscle behind them. Considering that the Covid-draught movies were released with absolutely zero support, some of them did pretty well. Our best ones were "The Outlaw Josey Wales" and "Hocus Pocus." "Raiders of the Lost Ark" did pretty well too.

But yeah, this could be just as bad as the Covid thing. Maybe worse, since there's no telling how long it'll last.

[Jon Dent]

Most are expecting Dune 2 to get punted to 2024 at the earliest since it's still in production and probably hasn't finished all it's re-shoots or ADR.

Aquaman just went through another round of reshoots and is expected to get bumped (again).

Ghostbusters is still in production and is shut down.

Guessing Wonka will have production shutdown as well unless they've already finished re-shoots and ADR (which this far out is unlikely)

It's looking really ugly if the strikes continue. We may even end up shutting down for a little while if it gets really bad.

[Steve Guttag]

I wonder how fast even the streamers can recover if the pipeline of new content empties. Note, independent studios not represented by the AMPTP (e.g. A24) are not involved in the strike so they can still make content.

No matter what the studios may claim, this is hurting them. It's not just the movies (which are inherently a delayed pain as there are completed features) but their TV and Cable entities have also stopped their content. One would think their ad revenue would suffer without such content. They'll be back to reality shows.

[Frank Angel]

I wonder how fast even the streamers can recover if the pipeline of new content empties. Note, independent studios not represented by the AMPTP (e.g. A24) are not involved in the strike so they can still make content.

No matter what the studios may claim, this is hurting them. It's not just the movies (which are inherently a delayed pain as there are completed features) but their TV and Cable entities have also stopped their content. One would think their ad revenue would suffer without such content. They'll be back to reality shows.

But there sill Is the possibility that the big name A list or even B list actors and writers working on independent productions, still members of SAG-AFTRA and WGA, may very well refuse to work in solidarity with their brothers and sisters. It might also be not in good form to be seen as not standing with all the other actors and writers and supporting them in their fight -- we know how PR and image-driven those folks can be.

[Marcel Birgelen]

Now is the time for independent content creators to make yourself heard. If there is going to be another months-long black hole in the exhibition sector, maybe those cinema owners can be motivated to look elsewhere for content to fill their screens with.

[Frank Angel]

Marcel, there really is no dearth of great content out there readily available, we ran showing lots of independent gems that no one ever heard of because they were from small independents who were't able to pour a few million in promotion like the big boys. We eeked out a barely sustainable business model with a following of loyal patrons, many of them who would come to see these fine films -- even foreign language imports with subtitles...yipes -- solely on our reputation for finding really compelling titles and our copywriter's expert ability to make them sound interesting. But that was before the explosion of streaming services and the ass-to-couch glue those services seemed to engender. If I were 25 today, I certainly wouldn't go into the cinema business.

When I started running films in the 70s -- Brooklyn Center Cinema -- Brooklyn First and Finest Retrospective and Alternative Movie Showplace -- many times we would fill our 2500 seat movie palace. When I booked Fellini's SATYRICON, I got a call from the floor 10 minutes into the first reel telling me not to make the change-over and to turn on the house lights. "Why?" this young kid demanded -- "Because there are dozens of people sitting in the isles. A Fire Marshal says we have to clear them out." Can you imagine? It is a totally different culture around movie-going today. The public perception of Movies today relegates them to the status of what a McDonald's hamburger is to a banquet at Ruth Chris's. It's throw-away fast food entertainment. You are lucky you can get that kind of attendances except for perhaps the biggest blockbuster. And maybe not even then; I went to see AVATAR II -- you know, the one UNDERWATER, a month or so ago in an IMAX theatre no less - a title that is by no means a "small independent release with no publicity." Evidently they knew I was coming and made it a private screening for me and my colleague because on a Friday night at 8pm, the two of us were the ONLY patrons in that theatre. I don't know how the could even afford the electricity to fire up the projectors.

In our culture today, going to The Movies isn't perceived as the special, unique and exceptional entertainment that it was just a few decades ago. I still have the 1-sheet hanging in the booth from those heady days that says: Movies
MOVIES
MOVIES!
Everyone Should Have
One To Look Forward To.

Those were the day my friends, we thought they'd never end; then came digital...and they did.

[Bobby Henderson]

One thing I'm hoping will happen in the weeks ahead: Universal and theater chains will extend the 15/70mm and 5/70mm runs of Oppenheimer (particularly the IMAX film version).

I didn't pre-order tickets for Oppenheimer at Cinemark's 15/70-capable screen in Dallas when I should have -all thanks to a hail storm from hell on June 15 that upended all sorts of plans. I got serious damage to my house and truck. I had to get the claims process fully in motion before making any plans to drive out of town a significant distance to see a movie. By the time I felt safe to order tickets the shows were pretty much sold out thru August 8. Part of the problem is this Dallas IMAX theater's PUNY seating capacity: just 234 seats. Our Lie-MAX theater here in friggin' Lawton has over 550 seats. So it doesn't take much hype for that theater to fill up its limited number of seats. And we have the "Barbenheimer" pop-cultural phenomenon currently underway.

A lot of these theaters playing Oppenheimer in 70mm have had to fly-in experienced projectionists and set them up in hotels. Obviously these guys can't live in hotels for months on end. It's looking like the 5/70mm runs of Oppenheimer could be short-lived in many locations. I don't know how long the 15/70mm shows will run, but it's not looking good for anything past mid-August. If the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes continue into the fall the studios and theater chains may need to book those projectionists on one or more trips.

I really don't care about seeing a d-cinema version of Oppenheimer. If there was no film version of it there might be an outside chance I'd drive across my town to see the movie on our local IMAX digital screen. But I might just as likely wait for it to show up on MAX, Netflix or whatever. I'm sure as hell not driving to OKC or Dallas to see a mostly dialog-heavy 3 hour movie. I'd drive to Dallas to see a 15/70mm version though.

And that should be a hint to both the movie studios and theaters. If they want to book previously released movies into cinemas that people can already watch on TV they need to present them (if possible) in ways that can't be duplicated at home so easily. At least get more 5/70mm and 15/70mm shows into bigger theaters, even if it means making new prints, training new people and even building new replacement parts for projection systems. It's very clear there is customer demand out there for 70mm film presentations.

I'm not sure what can be done to help the vast majority of theaters that are stuck in the digital-only realm. Probably 95% or more of the general public will choose to watch a specific movie at home if they can play it on their TV screen. That group isn't going to spend extra to see it at a theater. Only a small minority of people will do so. Cinemas can try upgrading equipment, but finances are so tight at most theaters the money just isn't there for any upgrades.

If the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes go on long enough it will indeed hurt the cable/satellite TV companies and streaming services. Cord Cutting has already been a big thing for the past few years. The syndrome could worsen considerably if TV viewers are stuck with even more "reality" shows, game shows and other "unscripted" crap. Live sports is the only reason I still have any pay TV service, and my like for that is hanging by a thread. The music industry could take advantage of this situation if it wasn't a sad, hollow shell of its former self.

On the bright side, this lack of content could get a lot of asses out of chairs and people out of the house. They might get some damned exercise or meet more people in person and improve those social skills.

Now is the time for independent content creators to make yourself heard. If there is going to be another months-long black hole in the exhibition sector, maybe those cinema owners can be motivated to look elsewhere for content to fill their screens with.

Independent movies can do well in big city markets. But they play to mostly empty auditoriums everywhere else. An "indie" movie needs to have some sort of effective marketing campaign in order to put butts in seats. Usually that means spending a lot of money on advertising. In the current case of "Sound of Freedom" that movie got its big marketing push via partisan cable news networks, word of mouth from partisan media personalities and local grass roots efforts in churches and other places. Basically the movie got a hell of a lot of free publicity no other "regular" indie movie would ever receive.

[Harold Hallikainen]

Marcel, there really is no dearth of great content out there readily available, we ran showing lots of independent gems that no one ever heard of because they were from small independents who were't able to pour a few million in promotion like the big boys. We eeked out a barely sustainable business model with a following of loyal patrons, many of them who would come to see these fine films -- even foreign language imports with subtitles...yipes -- solely on our reputation for finding really compelling titles and our copywriter's expert ability to make them sound interesting.

I think there's something to this reputation thing. When we lived in San Luis Obispo, then Denver, and now Tucson, we found a theater that did a good job selecting movies. Even if we'd never heard of the movie (other than trailers shown at that theater), we'd go see the movie based on the "recommendation" (the fact that they were showing it) of the movie. We've seen some great stuff!

[Mike Blakesley]

Those were the day my friends, we thought they'd never end; then came digital...and they did.

I'd say it was more like "home video" and/or "the internet" ... it was when those two things got in bed together that those days ended. It had nothing to do with how we put movies on the screen.

Our industry stiil offers lots of grandeur. The size of the picture, and especially the size of the sound. But when you don't mind watching a movie on a 5" phone screen, in 30 second bits between text messages, the grandeur doesn't matter. It's not a requirement for people. Who knew?

[Leo Enticknap]

Independent movies can do well in big city markets. But they play to mostly empty auditoriums everywhere else. An "indie" movie needs to have some sort of effective marketing campaign in order to put butts in seats. Usually that means spending a lot of money on advertising. In the current case of "Sound of Freedom" that movie got its big marketing push via partisan cable news networks, word of mouth from partisan media personalities and local grass roots efforts in churches and other places. Basically the movie got a hell of a lot of free publicity no other "regular" indie movie would ever receive.

The "faith-based" genre has been gathering steam for a few years now, with production companies such as Pure Flix cropping up to serve it. The game changer with Sound of Freedom is that it is actually a good movie on its own production values and merits - strong script, good performances, more than competent direction, etc. etc. It's really the first faith based film I've seen that anyone might want to go to who is not motivated to be there solely by the belief that Hollywood = Satan, and their desire to protest against that. Every other of these things I've looked at after being recommended them by someone at church have turned out to be amateurish shite, even if I did support the message they were trying to promote. But Sound of Freedom became a political football, because of accusations on one side of the aisle of attempts to suppress it, and on the other that it promotes a discredited conspiracy theory. That having been said, there is no reason why guerilla marketing tactics cannot make other independent movies successful in theaters, too, especially if those theaters are being starved of Hollywood product.

[Marcel Birgelen]

In the past, the established movie studios were the de-facto gatekeepers of what productions went to cinemas and what not. They both controlled and owned the distribution companies, they essentially controlled the 35mm chain. When they pushed everybody to digital, they essentially filled their own moat. I can send you a digital download, a hard drive with my movie on it, you can play it.

There is still billions of dollars to be made in theatrical exhibition, you only need to make the movies the audiences actually WANT to see.

All the movies we expected to make money last year, made tons of money for both the exhibitors AND the movie studios. All those pre-programmed failures, you could see coming from lightyears ahead... well, they did not. All this superhero dreck, essentially *everything* Disney pushed out the door last year, Transformers 64, Mission Impossible 128, Indiana Jones and the Dialysis of Density... They came with a big bundle of TNT already wrapped around them, right out of the factory. It only took a little spark to light those bombs.

Independents manage to churn out movies at far lesser overheads than those big boys, yet they STILL can fully use the impact of THE BIG SCREEN. The problem is that independents often focus on non-main-stream genres, because those slots are usually being filled by the Hollywood content machine. With a big void right there, there is NOTHING stopping those independents from creating movies that fill those voids. You really don't need a 250 million dollar budget to make a commercially successful film...

As for marketing budget... Sorry, I really call *mostly* bullshit on that one. Yeah, it certainly has SOME impact, but slowly, everybody is realizing that spending millions upon millions on big marketing campaigns is far less effective than some people want us to believe, mainly those who have ample of advertisement space to sell to sustain their own businesses.

Worth of mouth and a good guerilla marketing strategy like with Sound of Freedom is a perfect example of how movies can be successful even without Hollywood marketing dollars. Modern digital distribution should also be able to do a synchronized GLOBAL release, because that's what's killing most of the independent releases right here... You hear about them, they end up getting played at some film festival, only to be quietly released to a few cinemas in the art-house circuit a full year or so later, when everybody has long forgotten the movie even exists...

Heck, back in the "heydays" me and my buddies went out to the cinema every single week at least once. We often showed up even without knowing what was playing... I've ended up seeing many bad movies that way, but also a few very special ones, that I wouldn't have seen otherwise. I'm pretty sure I enticed quite a lot of people to go see THAT very movie. When we give movies some more leg-time, they also have the opportunity to grow.

A well-run independent studio, should be able to see and anticipate on this and would allow for a reasonable theatrical window, before shoving the movie down into the streaming abyss...