2021 WB Slate Debuting on HBO Max and in Theaters at same time

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

I sure don't like this. Spells more doom and gloom for theater owners if you ask me... It may not be COVID 19 that kills off theaters but the studios themselves. And it makes absolutely no sense. They face a very long recoup time on their investments through streaming.... I wonder if theaters will boycott WB?

[Mike Blakesley]

If there is any good news about it at all, it's that maybe this move will allow the release dates to be reliable.

[Jim Cassedy]

Cinemark Responds To Earth-Shattering Warner Bros-HBO Max 2021 Theatrical Slate Decision
https://deadline.com/2020/12/hbo-max...se-1234649848/

CINEMARK is the first major exhibitor to weigh in today regarding Warner Media's decision to put its 2021 theatrical slate in Stateside theaters and HBO MAX simultaneously.

Essentially the No. 3 exhibitor will take it easy as it does, and said the following today via a company rep: “In light of the current operating environment, we are making near-term booking decisions on a film-by-film basis. At this time, Warner Bros has not provided any details for the hybrid distribution model of their 2021 films.”

While AMC immediately heralded Warner's decision to put Wonder Woman 1984 on HBO Max & in cinemas during the pandemic on Christmas, Cinemark never responded. Those in distribution land say that Cinemark is bound to come around and play the movie, but nothing official yet. Cinemark Boss Mark Zoradi, as a former Disney vet, always has been pragmatic about windows decisions, having a full understanding of the studio side. We’ll see how this plays out.

Will exhibitors charge $1 to these HBO Max movies? And reap high rentals? This is truly a fight for eyeballs going forward between those cinemas that are braving the pandemic and HBO Max, which wants subs in the short term.
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[Bobby Henderson]

There is really no part of this equation that is beneficial to commercial movie theaters, no matter how anyone from movie studio brass tries to spin it. Theaters could try charging $1 admission for these shows (perhaps as a loss leader to hopefully sell concessions) but would Warner Bros allow it? Charging full price sure won't put many butts in those seats. The only other alternative is just not booking any WB content. Between what Disney has already been doing and now what WB plans to do this will only lead to more movie theaters closing. Maybe a lot more. Those two distributors control a giant chunk of Hollywood output for theaters. Who do we have left? Paramount, Sony and Universal?

How much audience can a commercial theater lose and yet still remain afloat? That's the big question. There may always be "purists" who insist on seeing movies on commercial theater screens rather than the TV at home. There will always be people wanting to get out of the house to do something on "date night" or just to be entertained somehow. Nevertheless, all movie theaters depend on having enough bodies occupy those seats on a regular-enough basis to cover all the operation expenses and (hopefully) provide enough for some level of profit.

This move on Warner Bros' part to release new movies day and date in theaters and on HBO Max could be seen as a crossing the Rubicon action. But studios have been inflicting a death of a thousand cuts action on theaters for many years. This pandemic has done terrible damage. This additional blow could be enough to sink a lot of theaters for good. But that might be by design, considering the scenario of studio-owned theaters I've been talking about in another thread.

[Steve Guttag]

What is absolutely stupid about it all (and there is a lot) is the day-and-date release strategy. All they are doing is limiting the movie's potential revenue. Here is a fact that studios just don't get...a movie almost can't become stale while it is in the can on the shelf (some could be dated)...this is evidenced by the movies that have been in the can that they are planning on in 2021 or even Wonder Woman in a few weeks that could have been released earlier.

Movies in theatres cannot becomes state for a LONG time (months or even years) and there are decades of evidence to back it up. Movies only start to become stale once they hit the home. At that point, their sell-by date has been established and they become old and stale. Once the consumer no longer has to make decisions about what to see or risk losing the ability to seeing an unseen title for a long time, it is a stale movie that can be put off, or even forgotten as one might never "get around" to seeing it once it is part of the bottomless pit of content available in the home.

The notion of day-and-date with cinemas is absurd and only made worse by a short release in the home followed by a short exclusivity in the cinema. Why not play that in reverse. How about giving cinemas 6-months-year during reduced capacity times and THEN release to the home. If the movie hasn't played to the home market...it will still be fresh when it gets there for those that haven't seen it and for those that have seen it...well, congratulations, you got at least one ticket sale already and you might get a subscription sale chaser. That is the only scenario where the studio makes the most money on the title. Once you put it in the home, it starts going bad and becomes more fungible with other titles.

[Bobby Henderson]

I think the major studios are going to find out the hard way about the day and date release ploy. Unfortunately the studios won't be the ones who suffer the worst consequences of this strategy. The commercial movie theater operators will bear the brunt of it all.

The studios will have their other release platforms and revenue streams to tide them over during a blood-bath in the commercial theater industry. At worst, they'll see a good number of big budget projects fail to rake in the amount of money they expected. That may cause a number of big movie projects in development to either not be green-lit, scaled down in scope or even turned into a TV series. When they finally come around to admit how important the theatrical platform was to their bottom lines they'll solve that problem by introducing their own studio-owned movie theaters with a 100% vertically-integrated distribution model. Real convenient.

[Randy Stankey]

I have been thinking about this for a while.
Unfortunately, I don't have any nice answers. No good answer, at all, really.

I think there has been a fundamental shift in the way people consume multimedia and entertainment, in general.

By this, I do not mean that people can watch movies or shows on TV or with streaming boxes (Apple TV, Roku, Fire Stick, etc.) I'm not talking about using their smart phones or even on computer via internet. I am talking about the what things people watch, why they watch and how they watch them.

We have cable TV channels and free, OTA TV. We have streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, Disney and others. We have YouTube and Vimeo and others. People can see videos on Facebook. They can even share content directly, from person to person.

There are Hollywood studios and national companies that make and sell programs. There are independents and semi-professionals. There are people on places like YouTube that make their own content and profit from it with on-line platforms. People can even shoot their own videos on miniature cameras, GoPro cameras and even directly from their smart phones. They can make them, on the spot and upload them and share them, instantly, any time, night or day.

The market for movies, multimedia and similar entertainment has been diluted by millions of...sorry to say this... wankers, all over the world. Consumers of entertainment can watch anything they want, whenever they want, as much as they want to.

People watch and share videos at home, in their cars, or just walking down the street. Heck! I see people at work, hiding out in the restroom stalls, watching videos on their phones while they take a dump! I often see people who sit on the toilet, screwing around on their phones when they should be working.

People can binge watch episode after episode of any show or movie franchise, all night long or they can watch five minutes of it and turn it off. It's instant gratification but it is also as much gratification as they want, whenever they want, virtually without consequence.

I have known people who have been written up and even fired from their jobs because they were caught playing with their phones on the job. There are multiple people, where I work, who are known for farting around on their phones on the job. In fact, there is one guy who always seems to be in the restroom with his phone. He's so well known that, if somebody asks, "Where's Garrett?" the instant reply will be, "In the restroom." It's not even a joke, anymore! (This kid is also the first to complain when he doesn't get the raise he thinks he deserves and I have been told, by a manager, that Garrett is not long for this company if he keeps it up...but I digress...)

The bottom line and the sad fact is that people just don't give a flying frog leap about movie theaters, anymore.

They might say otherwise, to your face, but, when it comes down to dollars, they don't care. They'll just turn back to their smart phones when they are done talking. They might talk a big storm but they don't actually go to theaters. They don't put their money where their mouths are.

I have talked about this, at length, with people at employment agencies.
I tell them where I used to work and what I used to do but they just shake their heads.

I talked to my girlfriend's father who was a a producer of major Hollywood movies. He produced movies that you all know. He also directed TV shows that you probably have heard of. He wasn't just some "nobody."

I ate dinner with him, in his dining room and sat with him in his living room and talked with him, on a few occasions, about movies and what it was like to make them. He knew what I did for a living. He knew what company I worked for. He even told me that one of his relatives owned a movie theater back in the old days and he worked there for a short time.

He told me, point blank, Hollywood is dead. Movie theaters are dead. He told me that it was good that I got out of the business while I still had time.

It really makes me sad because I loved working in movie theaters and I loved making movies run. I might not be a great, expert engineer or technician but projection is the job I was "meant" to do. I, sometimes, go to bed almost crying, at night, because my beloved career is gone...just gone.

Movie theaters might not be fully dead, just yet but they are on life support. They won't be long for this world. My girlfriend's father said just that. As far as he was concerned, Hollywood isn't far behind. The movie industry, as we know it, won't be around much longer, either.

This move, by movie studios, is the beginning of their death throes. They are clawing and scraping to keep themselves alive, however they can. They are selling out to streaming services and other things, as a last-ditch attempt to salvage what last bit of money they can get their hands on before they go under.

I'm sure that there will be a niche market for some movie theaters to survive in but they will be anachronisms. Walking into a movie theater will be like walking into an old, clock repair shop where there is a 90 year old man behind the counter, winding up the grandfather's clocks, blowing the dust off while you marvel at ancient, mechanical timepieces.

You'll look around for a while then glance at your Apple Watch and say, "It's late! I must be going."

You will walk out of the shop, thinking, "Why don't they make clocks like that, anymore?" but you'll never come back again.

A month later, the old man will die and there will be a Starbuck's coffee shop in its place.

You'll wonder, "Where did it all go?"

[Lyle Romer]

I think the best way forward for movie theatres is probably with the unlimited movie pass type things. That way you can put people on a monthly subscription and most people are too lazy to cancel even if they aren't using it enough. Combine that with more attractive food offerings and discounts for people on the subscription plan in order to sell more of the profitable concession items. Then provide a premium experience so people who have the option to watch something on HBO Max or go to a theatre can choose the latter since they already paid for it and get some time out of the house and a good experience.

Without that type of thing, the trend of people only going to theatres in large numbers for event type movies will continue. Why pay movie theatre prices for a drama if you can watch it on a streaming service even if it isn't day and date. If the exhibition industry wants to survive after COVID, it must change. Neither the 1940s or the 1990s business model will work in the 2020s.

Screen size (and lit properly with 4k resolution) is critical. In the days of 35mm film vs. DVDs there was a quality and size advantage to movie theatres. Now, there is no quality advantage except maybe with premium laser projection. I can get an 85" 4k TV for $2k so if I'm going to pay for a movie, the screen had better be really big and the quality should be at least similar.

[Mark Ogden]

AMC’s CEO is a little miffed about this:

“These coronavirus-impacted times are uncharted waters for all of us, which is why AMC signed on to an HBO Max exception to customary practices for one film only, Wonder Woman 1984, being released by Warner Brothers at Christmas when the pandemic appears that it will be at its height. However, Warner now hopes to do this for all their 2021 theatrical movies, despite the likelihood that with vaccines right around the corner the theatre business is expected to recover.Clearly, Warner Media intends to sacrifice a considerable portion of the profitability of its movie studio division, and that of its production partners and filmmakers, to subsidize its HBO Max start up. As for AMC, we will do all in our power to ensure that Warner does not do so at our expense. We will aggressively pursue economic terms that preserve our business.We have already commenced an immediate and urgent dialogue with the leadership of Warner on this subject.As this issue gets sorted out, we are nonetheless encouraged that vaccines protecting society at large against the coronavirus are very much at hand. So, it is our expectation that moviegoers soon will be able once again to delight in coming to our theatres without any worry — viewing the world’s best movies safely in our big seats, with our big sound and on our big screens.”

He’s right about at least one thing: for Warner’s, it’s all about HBO Max.

[Bobby Henderson]

The bottom line and the sad fact is that people just don't give a flying frog leap about movie theaters, anymore. They might say otherwise, to your face, but, when it comes down to dollars, they don't care. They'll just turn back to their smart phones when they are done talking. They might talk a big storm but they don't actually go to theaters. They don't put their money where their mouths are.

The general public definitely takes commercial movie theaters for granted, as if those theaters will always be there as an entertainment option. They might be more than a bit sorry once their local theater closes. It's morbidly funny to observe some of the shock and other odd reactions when a local theater shuts down.

We have two first run theaters here in Lawton. One of them closed for good (the modest 12-plex inside our dying 1970's era mall) as a consequence of New Vision Theaters going bust months ago. As usual, many residents failed to understand the economics of it. They get bent out of shape when the theater closes. They feel entitled to have a local movie theater, but don't bother to support it with their money. And then when it closes those citizens look for someone to blame. All I can do laugh hard when some jackass tries to blame the City Council for it. The same people believe the City Council can force a certain restaurant chain to build a location here. It's nuts.

I can't mourn our old mall theater closing; it was a compromised thing when it opened nearly 20 years ago. Our other first run location, the Patriot 13 (now operated by AMC) opened 5 years ago. That would be a much bigger loss if it closed. The old Carmike 8 building that it replaced still sits boarded up on Old Cache Road. Our small city of just under 100,000 people has a growing collection of empty retail buildings and vacant properties. The property where the old Cache 8 theater sat remains void after all these years. It's really depressing.

***

I know I've gone on about the conspiracy theory that the big studios could be plotting to put existing theater chains out of business so they can, sometime later, run their own studio-owned theaters. There is one BIG problem with that scenario. If the big studios let existing theater chains fail that will also cause many businesses supported by commercial theaters to fail too. If the big studios were to let existing theater buildings sit vacant for a year or so (or several years) while they experimented with various ploys of home-based movie distribution there would be no going back. There is a lot of infrastructure that goes into a commercial movie theater. You can't just re-establish all of those industry-specific product lines at the drop of a hat. Once that infrastructure is gone it will be very difficult to bring back any of it.

[Jay Wyatt]

What is absolutely stupid about it all (and there is a lot) is the day-and-date release strategy. All they are doing is limiting the movie's potential revenue. Here is a fact that studios just don't get...a movie almost can't become stale while it is in the can on the shelf (some could be dated)...this is evidenced by the movies that have been in the can that they are planning on in 2021 or even Wonder Woman in a few weeks that could have been released earlier.

Movies in theatres cannot becomes state for a LONG time (months or even years) and there are decades of evidence to back it up. Movies only start to become stale once they hit the home. At that point, their sell-by date has been established and they become old and stale. Once the consumer no longer has to make decisions about what to see or risk losing the ability to seeing an unseen title for a long time, it is a stale movie that can be put off, or even forgotten as one might never "get around" to seeing it once it is part of the bottomless pit of content available in the home.

The notion of day-and-date with cinemas is absurd and only made worse by a short release in the home followed by a short exclusivity in the cinema. Why not play that in reverse. How about giving cinemas 6-months-year during reduced capacity times and THEN release to the home. If the movie hasn't played to the home market...it will still be fresh when it gets there for those that haven't seen it and for those that have seen it...well, congratulations, you got at least one ticket sale already and you might get a subscription sale chaser. That is the only scenario where the studio makes the most money on the title. Once you put it in the home, it starts going bad and becomes more fungible with other titles.

Good points, another concern that I'm not seeing addressed in the potential for piracy and how that could affect combined revenue (box + streaming). If WW launches on HBO Max day1, what keeps anyone from setting up a HDMI capture device and grabbing a 4K-7.1 RIP of the movie and unleashing it to the torrent sites. I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that a Roku or Firestick box won't have to potential to apply Civolution watermarking.

I think a primary factor in making DCI encryption so air-tight was to protect the film during theatrical window so that the 2nd home market release could also be profitable. Aside from that slip up in China the system has been pretty successful in stomping out leaks. So now fast-forward to 2021, why do the exhibitors have to absorb all the costs associated with gear that has DCI grade security while HBO Max does not?

[Mike Blakesley]

Movies in theatres cannot becomes state for a LONG time (months or even years) and there are decades of evidence to back it up. Movies only start to become stale once they hit the home. At that point, their sell-by date has been established and they become old and stale. Once the consumer no longer has to make decisions about what to see or risk losing the ability to seeing an unseen title for a long time, it is a stale movie that can be put off, or even forgotten as one might never "get around" to seeing it once it is part of the bottomless pit of content available in the home.

The above may just be the best paragraph ever written on Film-Tech. I wish every studio head and every filmmaker could read it. It's absolutely true. I have DVDs and BluRays and DVR recordings at home that I've never watched... just haven't gotten around to it, but it doesn't matter because they're always there.

The general public definitely takes commercial movie theaters for granted, as if those theaters will always be there as an entertainment option. They might be more than a bit sorry once their local theater closes.

I had a big epiphany about this a few years ago when another business in our town closed. I never really missed it, because I hadn't been there in years. It dawned on me: Most people don't go to movies. MOST people sit at home on their couches. So if we closed, MOST people would barely notice and would just go on with our lives. They might notice that our end of Main Street was a lot darker than it used to be, but that's about it. People in big cities, where there isn't a theater right in the middle of their environment, might not even realize a theater had closed. It gave me a new level of respect and thankfulness for the moviegoers that we do have.

[Frank Cox]

That's well stated, Mike, but with the following caveat.

I think there are a few businesses that everyone just assumes or expects to exist in any town, and if you don't have them people say, "What's wrong with this place?"

A gas station, grocery store, restaurant, post office, hotel, movie theatre and local newspaper make up that list of "essentials", and the last two are now an endangered species.

[Steve Guttag]

I'm particularly touched that (potentially) the best paragraph ever written on Film-Tech by me is littered with typos and grammatical errors. I don't even get 4 words in before the first and then immediately second one. As they say, I do my best proof-reading after hitting send (or Post Reply, in this case). No, I don't proof-read postings...I just type and move on...often leaving parentheses unclosed.

[Bobby Henderson]

I think there are a few businesses that everyone just assumes or expects to exist in any town, and if you don't have them people say, "What's wrong with this place?"

This is the kind of leverage I think the big movie studios would have over towns both big and small when looking to re-establish commercial movie theaters (and maybe even drive-ins) as their own studio-owned outlets of exclusive exhibition. Any city or town that has it's shit together would fully welcome such a business. Right? Nevertheless, there is still that matter of various support companies and their product lines that all commercial movie theaters need. How do the big studios re-establish all that stuff once regular theaters are allowed to fail?