Fauci: it won't be safe to go to the theater until the back end of 2021

[James Westbrook]

Today I went to my local big chain pharmacy and got my flu shot. Just the typical flus which mutate any given year. On a good year, this vaccine will protect me from 60% of the flu viruses that are expected to be out among us all for the next 9 months or so. This is what is to be expected.

Because viruses mutate, and this form of Covid is also expected to mutate, when the vaccines do come out they too may be 60% effective as to what will be among us all. My source is from a doctor on her syndicated radio program. Her name escapes me as I stopped listening as she aired locally on Sunday mornings and now that I'm working closing shifts again... yeah...

The vaccines will not be the magic bullet but they will help, if these pass the trails without causing worse than usual side effects, then we should be gold.

The same doctor also mentioned the viruses tend to weaken as they mutate, but can still be fatal to those who develop health problems later in life. Like the flu vaccines we will probably see new Covid vaccines released every year. And whoever develops the vaccines will guess wrong on a given year. They may be 30% or 40% effective.

In my world view, the cinemas are safe. I'm one of those helping insure of that with the building I'm working in.

We are in dire need of good movies.

[Steve Guttag]

Bobby,

You are selectively reading. To make the claim or even insinuate

But it sounds like you're insisting that it's completely impossible to contract SARS-CoV-2 in a movie theater

Is to ignore that I've said quite the opposite. What I am claiming (and consistently) is that theatres are no more dangerous than any other indoor business.

And while I'll agree that attendance is low and some of that is by design (capacity restrictions), that only goes to reinforce why cinemas are as safe or safer than other indoor venues. However, for you to ignore literally millions of people attending movies and not one case of COVID-19 traced to cinema is to ignore available data. To hand-wave contact tracing as not 100% reliable would also put you in the junk science department as almost NOTHING in life or science hits 100% of the time. My mother-in-law (a nurse) got flagged as having COVID-19, by nasal swab. Contact tracing, since she lives with us required all in our house be tested...all came back negative...including her on her 2nd and 3rd test. Why...because nasal swab is only 95% accurate when it comes to a false positive. So do we get rid of the most reliable test because it isn't 100% effective? No because you'd never move forward on anything with that sort of threshold. And here is a hot tip you are already aware of...whatever vaccine or vaccines that come out...none of them will be 100% effective either and neither are masks but that doesn't mean you don't better your odds.

As for movie theatres being better than other indoor venues. I personally think they are. People can spread out due to lower capacities and due to many modern recliner type seating. People face one direction and people don't talk/sing like in other venues...those activities tend to expel more air at higher velocities than just normal breathing or eating. Statistically, this is being born out by actual data...not just speculation.

I'm not saying YOU or anyone else should feel comfortable with going to a cinema if you aren't. Nor are cinemas compulsory (though that would be nice) but I am saying, as far as indoor activities go, cinemas are as safe as any of them, at the moment and no data yet has show it to be otherwise.

[Marcel Birgelen]

I am not wearing a mask until I see the science that says it will actually help. The government's story about the mask is all over the place. First we don't need it, then we do need it, then it is symbolic and it doesn't help and now back to that it does help. It was to protect other people and now it is to protect others and the mask wearer. It is easier to get the government to tell us the truth about UFOs.

Do you self a favor and accept the science that is out there and this science actually tells us it is very likely masks do work. Yes, there was a lot of back and forth at the beginning of the pandemic, but this is how science works: It's always a work in progress. Along the road, you learn more. Part of it is accepting that previous assumptions might be wrong. So, listen to the science and not what (local) politics is telling you. Not that people involved in science never have some kind of more or less hidden agenda, but in general, they're far more honest than politicians.

Yes, a simple cloth-mask will not protect you from catching it, but it will avoid you potentially infecting others. If you want to protect yourself, you need at least a FFP2, N95, similar or better rated mask. Those are still pretty expensive and in limited supply: It's best to leave that supply to people who really need it, like those people that work with infected people on a daily basis. So, essentially, you not wearing a mask is you being a potential asshole towards others. Don't be that asshole.

On the NATO call today, it was stated that there has been no documented case of a Covid outbreak being traced back to any movie theater anywhere on the planet.

We're now more than two weeks past the initial release of TENET, which drew pretty respectable crowds over here and large parts of the world. The fact that not a single COVID-19 outbreak could be traced back to a theater until now, only reinforces the concept that movie theaters, with their current restrictions in place, are pretty safe environments.

I was honestly worried when theaters reopened back here, that they would become a victim of a super-spreader event and therefore would be the first to close again. But statistical data until now, looks like we can safely assume that theaters don't pose a big threat. Sure, there is no absolute safety, but even without a pandemic, that safety cannot be guaranteed.

Also, I see big differences between places like churches:

- Many churches are packing in more people than they should.
- Depending on the type of service, there is much more crowd interaction, including singing, clapping, dancing...
- Many churches are pretty old structures without any real means of ventilation or HVAC.
- Churches have a tendency to draw much older crowd than cinemas.

That's why I'd withhold myself from attending such services for now, which can be pretty hard, especially if it's not just your average weekly Sunday service, but concerns something more profound like someones funeral...

[Mike Blakesley]

Nobody is saying anywhere is 100% safe. What the industry is saying is that theaters are likely just as safe, or probably safer, than other gathering places like bars, churches, nightclubs, etc. due to the way people behave at theaters vs those other places. Also theaters with reserved seats have a degree of control over where people sit that those other places don't necessarily have.

On the NATO call today, it was stated that there has been no documented case of a Covid outbreak being traced back to any movie theater anywhere on the planet.

[Bobby Henderson]

Are you kidding? First, while cinemas have been open in the US for about 1-2 months now (depends on the state), they have been open around the world (and not just China), for several months.

This pandemic is only several months old. Most theaters around the world (especially here in the US) were closed for much of it. European theaters only started re-opening in mid Summer; it was mid July when French theaters opened up again. A bunch of theaters in the US are still closed, especially in the most populated markets like LA and NYC. While theaters have been slowly re-opening the attendance hasn't been for shit because there are hardly any GOOD, NEW movies to see.

So, yeah, you're not going to see much, if any SARS-CoV-2 spread at all when a movie is playing to mostly empty auditoriums.

By the way, the contract tracing stuff isn't 100% reliable and accurate. Lots of variables get involved, even just for a couple doing the dinner and movie thing. If either or both came down with COVID-19 their night on the town would feature many opportunities for infection. Depending on when they got infected and how many days passed before they were finally diagnosed ends up including even more variables. So if they actually did contract SARS-CoV-2 in a cinema there is a good chance the contract tracers would tie their infection to different location, such as the restaurant where they dined.

The bottom line is, not you or anyone else has any evidence that cinemas are particularly risky places.

I haven't been trying to say a movie theater is any more risky than any other indoor business. But it sounds like you're insisting that it's completely impossible to contract SARS-CoV-2 in a movie theater. There is nothing special about a movie theater versus any other indoor business that can serve large crowds of people. If you have enough people gathered into any given indoor space (or even outdoor) there is going to be some infection risk present.

[Mike Blakesley]

So, I am listening to the weekly NATO "state of the industry" webinar right now. It mentions the Dr. Fauci story that this thread is based on. Turns out that Jennifer Garner was asking Fauci about when it would be safe to attend LIVE STAGE theater, NOT movie theaters. So it's apples and oranges. As happens so frequently, it's yet another case of the media not getting it right in the name of having a sensational scary story. Stage theaters (as is pointed out in the webinar) are smaller, people on stage are talking, they are usually sold-out venues, more intimate, etc. so it's a completely different scenario from movie theaters where you can have more showings per day, more possible distancing, and everyone is not talking.

[Jim Cassedy]

I don't know how churches are currently handling distancing

Here in the SF Bay area (and I think Los Angeles and several other California Counties) Churches have
been lumped into the same category more or less as theaters, and have not re-opened yet. Some have
been able to hold outdoor services in their parking lots or an adjacent garden, but even those gatherings
have mandated limits on attendance. Most of the Churches & Synagogues, etc here have been holding
their services online since mid March.

This sign is on the garden gate of a
church around the corner from me:
MassSign.jpg

The good news, is that if the air quality from the surrounding wildfires turns the skies any darker,
the drive-ins around here will be able to start holding matinees!

- - and on a somewhat related topic, I know one theater owner who might be facing the following
situation: He was renting his theater out Sunday mornings for services by some religious group.
We may have actually have a situation here in SF where The City will allow Churches to re-open,
but not theaters. But what about "church theaters" like this, of which there are several in the area?
That's going to be a Gordian Knot someone will have to figure out how to untie.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

There is an interesting animated time line for Tennessee in this article. See if you can tell when the mask mandate began and what effect is has had....

. https://www.tennessean.com/story/new...19/5788011002/

[Steve Guttag]

I suspect a strong reason people aren't going to theatres is that too many agencies are still spouting the company line of how risky movie theatres are in comparison to other activities. They just aren't turning out that way. Unfortunately, it will really be up to NATO and hopefully the distributors to "educate" the public and, quite frankly, the medical community that is continuing to spout the BS about risks in cinemas. The medical community should adjust their position(s) as data comes in to replace hypothesis. That said, they are not going to go out of their way and take their time to give to craps about cinemas so they will need to be confronted with the data that is already amassing to at least get them to calm down about it.

[Ed Gordon]

In most countries, more than 70 percent of survey respondents don’t yet feel comfortable resuming their “normal” out-of-home activities. For more than three-quarters of consumers who adjust their behaviors due to the health crisis, the easing of government restrictions won’t be enough. Instead, they’ll wait for guidance from medical authorities, reassurance that safety measures are in place, and the development of a COVID-19 vaccine and/or treatments.

Consumers do plan to resume some of their out-of-home activities soon, and shopping is first on the list. Large events and air travel, on the other hand, are last on the list.

Quote from Consumer sentiment and behavior continue to reflect the uncertainty of the COVID-19 crisis by McKinsey & Company.

Link to article: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-fu...amid-covid-19#

My take: Going to a theater is at the bottom of the list of things I miss doing in the last six months. I don't think movie theaters are going away for good, but it is going to be awhile before, 1) the audience wants to return, and 2) there is enough content to attract larger audiences and last but not least, 3) we have an effective vaccine.

[Mark Gulbrandsen]

There's a thing called Google, lean how to use it. None of us are here to hold your hand. . I'm today, busy and have to pick up dog poop in the back yard before the lawn guys get here....

[Mark Lane]

There is tons of data out there from all over the world... so perhaps do a little research.

Please share. Everyone says there is science but no one actually present any. The government has not produced any. State courts are ruling in favor of businesses because the states have not been able to product science. Michigan court allowed a barber shop to open because the state did not present much more than "trust us, it is dangerous". If there is real science that will hold up to why isn't it being presented?
When I see someone not wearing a mask, I see someone standing up for the rights of everyone and not being selfish. I see someone who have a medical condition that keeps them from wearing one.

I have seen reports from OSHA inspectors who have shown the air being breathed in by those that wear a mask violates the OSHA health codes. I have seen where my state has suspended the freedom of information act so they don't have to present the science. If there was real science that would get non-mask wearer to wear one, why not share that information?.. why suspend the freedom of information act to hide the information that would support the claims?

[Steve Guttag]

What growing pile of statistical evidence?

Are you kidding? First, while cinemas have been open in the US for about 1-2 months now (depends on the state), they have been open around the world (and not just China), for several months. There are countries, like Germany where they require your contact information in case they need to trace and still...ZERO infections traced to cinemas. We now have millions of people that have visited cinemas since COVID-19 hit and zero instanced of spreading it have been at cinemas. How can you ignore that type of evidence? Because the local cinema near you is doing miserable with attendance. People are people...if cinemas were going to be a particular problem, we would have seen it from other countries.

As for lobbies of churches versus theatres. I don't know how churches are currently handling distancing but I do know that theatres are not allowing any sort of "gathering" in their lobbies. Due to the low title count, they are running the same title on multiple screens with staggered show times to keep the lobby as empty as practical (while still trying to get as much soda/popcorn sales as possible. Even the "free refills" requires disposing of the old vessel so that only a fresh cup/tub/bag goes near the dispenser. When people go to church, it is a social event where communities see one another. With theatres, people tend to stay within their group and not mix with other groups of "strangers."

The bottom line is, not you or anyone else has any evidence that cinemas are particularly risky places. Each day they are open and with each ticket sold, the statistics favor the cinema experience compared to other indoor activities.

If you want to dispute it, prove it.

[Bobby Henderson]

Of course it isn't impossible for it to spread in a movie theatre. However, a movie theatre is very different from a church in terms of what people are doing and how they interact with each other. At a church service (especially a funeral), people are interacting with each other and each person interacts closely with many other people.

While there is a good amount of greeting and hand-shaking at churches the differences between a church and theater is not really all that different. Normally there is a good bit of socializing in a theater lobby and in the ticket lines. Once people are in a church sanctuary they're usually facing the same direction to listen to the pastor. That's not fundamentally any different than movie-goers facing a movie screen. I believe the thing that makes a church sanctuary more risky than a cinema auditorium is all the singing. That's going to do more to expel respiratory droplets than movie goers occasionally talking to each other and munching on popcorn.

Of course I'm not suggesting it is impossible. I'm suggesting, based on a growing pile of statistical evidence that one's risk of catching it within a movie theatre is becoming one of the lowest-risk indoor environments.

What growing pile of statistical evidence? Theaters in the United States have been closed for just about all the duration of this pandemic. There is hardly any actual real-world track record to measure. Even now with theaters recently re-opening (except for the largest big city markets) the attendance is pretty dismal. The new movies being released (Tenant, The New Mutants) have limited appeal. Older catalog movies that people can watch at home on their TV sets have possibly even less appeal. So that's going to color those "good" statistical numbers in an even more skewed fashion.

Early in this pandemic there may have been packed movie theaters in places like China. But we all know the Chinese government hasn't exactly been 100% honest and forth-coming with its SARS-CoV-2 statistics. Theaters in Europe started re-opening in July, but with safety measures in place like empty seats between customers mandatory mask wearing in the lobby and theater corridors. Again, with little in the way of good quality new movies to watch, cinemas aren't exactly hitting the ball out of the park in terms of attendance numbers. That skews the safety situation far better than it would be if a theater was playing a must-see movie to a packed house.

[Steve Guttag]

Just to get a stupid, obvious question out of the way: are you suggesting it is somehow impossible to transmit SARS-CoV-2 in a movie theater?

Of course I'm not suggesting it is impossible. I'm suggesting, based on a growing pile of statistical evidence that one's risk of catching it within a movie theatre is becoming one of the lowest-risk indoor environments.

You need to look beyond the US for information. Other countries have had movie theatres open for months now. To date, there have been zero instances of contact tracing of cinemas being the spreader of the COVID-19. And you are talking about millions of visitors around the world now.

As to what is different between a movie theatre and other venues you mention...for those cinemas with assigned seats, it is easier to have people spread out. Everyone faces the same direction so you don't have face-to-face interaction (at least with people outside of your party). People, generally don't talk, sing or do other activities where they are actively expelling air at higher velocities than normal breathing...except maybe laughter. There has been no study, within a cinema, that shows that its HVAC system picks up the virus, makes it through the system, and deposits it on another person in a manner that can infect them...and statistically, it is showing that the odds are increasingly very low.

Statistically, if cinemas were particularly bad with respect to spreading COVID-19, we should have seen that already. I'm not saying there won't be a case down the road (or a case isn't forming while I type this)...but even with such a case, the number of visitors/cases remains as low or lower than most any other indoor facility and, quite frankly, is doing very well against outdoor activities though those have more variables in play than a confined space.

It's time for the cinema industry (From studios through exhibitors) to start using our growing statistical evidence to get that information out to the public and the governments so we are treated with right level of caution and not be made out as death traps...as they currently are doing (health agencies).