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Fauci: it won't be safe to go to the theater until the back end of 2021

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Steve Guttag
    Are you kidding? First, while cinemas have been open in the US for about 1-2 months now (depends on the state), they have been open around the world (and not just China), for several months.
    This pandemic is only several months old. Most theaters around the world (especially here in the US) were closed for much of it. European theaters only started re-opening in mid Summer; it was mid July when French theaters opened up again. A bunch of theaters in the US are still closed, especially in the most populated markets like LA and NYC. While theaters have been slowly re-opening the attendance hasn't been for shit because there are hardly any GOOD, NEW movies to see.

    So, yeah, you're not going to see much, if any SARS-CoV-2 spread at all when a movie is playing to mostly empty auditoriums.

    By the way, the contract tracing stuff isn't 100% reliable and accurate. Lots of variables get involved, even just for a couple doing the dinner and movie thing. If either or both came down with COVID-19 their night on the town would feature many opportunities for infection. Depending on when they got infected and how many days passed before they were finally diagnosed ends up including even more variables. So if they actually did contract SARS-CoV-2 in a cinema there is a good chance the contract tracers would tie their infection to different location, such as the restaurant where they dined.

    Originally posted by Steve Guttag
    The bottom line is, not you or anyone else has any evidence that cinemas are particularly risky places.
    I haven't been trying to say a movie theater is any more risky than any other indoor business. But it sounds like you're insisting that it's completely impossible to contract SARS-CoV-2 in a movie theater. There is nothing special about a movie theater versus any other indoor business that can serve large crowds of people. If you have enough people gathered into any given indoor space (or even outdoor) there is going to be some infection risk present.


    • #47
      Nobody is saying anywhere is 100% safe. What the industry is saying is that theaters are likely just as safe, or probably safer, than other gathering places like bars, churches, nightclubs, etc. due to the way people behave at theaters vs those other places. Also theaters with reserved seats have a degree of control over where people sit that those other places don't necessarily have.

      On the NATO call today, it was stated that there has been no documented case of a Covid outbreak being traced back to any movie theater anywhere on the planet.


      • #48
        Originally posted by Mark Lane View Post
        I am not wearing a mask until I see the science that says it will actually help. The government's story about the mask is all over the place. First we don't need it, then we do need it, then it is symbolic and it doesn't help and now back to that it does help. It was to protect other people and now it is to protect others and the mask wearer. It is easier to get the government to tell us the truth about UFOs.
        Do you self a favor and accept the science that is out there and this science actually tells us it is very likely masks do work. Yes, there was a lot of back and forth at the beginning of the pandemic, but this is how science works: It's always a work in progress. Along the road, you learn more. Part of it is accepting that previous assumptions might be wrong. So, listen to the science and not what (local) politics is telling you. Not that people involved in science never have some kind of more or less hidden agenda, but in general, they're far more honest than politicians.

        Yes, a simple cloth-mask will not protect you from catching it, but it will avoid you potentially infecting others. If you want to protect yourself, you need at least a FFP2, N95, similar or better rated mask. Those are still pretty expensive and in limited supply: It's best to leave that supply to people who really need it, like those people that work with infected people on a daily basis. So, essentially, you not wearing a mask is you being a potential asshole towards others. Don't be that asshole.

        Originally posted by Mike Blakesley
        On the NATO call today, it was stated that there has been no documented case of a Covid outbreak being traced back to any movie theater anywhere on the planet.
        We're now more than two weeks past the initial release of TENET, which drew pretty respectable crowds over here and large parts of the world. The fact that not a single COVID-19 outbreak could be traced back to a theater until now, only reinforces the concept that movie theaters, with their current restrictions in place, are pretty safe environments.

        I was honestly worried when theaters reopened back here, that they would become a victim of a super-spreader event and therefore would be the first to close again. But statistical data until now, looks like we can safely assume that theaters don't pose a big threat. Sure, there is no absolute safety, but even without a pandemic, that safety cannot be guaranteed.

        Also, I see big differences between places like churches:

        - Many churches are packing in more people than they should.
        - Depending on the type of service, there is much more crowd interaction, including singing, clapping, dancing...
        - Many churches are pretty old structures without any real means of ventilation or HVAC.
        - Churches have a tendency to draw much older crowd than cinemas.

        That's why I'd withhold myself from attending such services for now, which can be pretty hard, especially if it's not just your average weekly Sunday service, but concerns something more profound like someones funeral...


        • #49

          You are selectively reading. To make the claim or even insinuate
          But it sounds like you're insisting that it's completely impossible to contract SARS-CoV-2 in a movie theater
          Is to ignore that I've said quite the opposite. What I am claiming (and consistently) is that theatres are no more dangerous than any other indoor business.

          And while I'll agree that attendance is low and some of that is by design (capacity restrictions), that only goes to reinforce why cinemas are as safe or safer than other indoor venues. However, for you to ignore literally millions of people attending movies and not one case of COVID-19 traced to cinema is to ignore available data. To hand-wave contact tracing as not 100% reliable would also put you in the junk science department as almost NOTHING in life or science hits 100% of the time. My mother-in-law (a nurse) got flagged as having COVID-19, by nasal swab. Contact tracing, since she lives with us required all in our house be tested...all came back negative...including her on her 2nd and 3rd test. Why...because nasal swab is only 95% accurate when it comes to a false positive. So do we get rid of the most reliable test because it isn't 100% effective? No because you'd never move forward on anything with that sort of threshold. And here is a hot tip you are already aware of...whatever vaccine or vaccines that come out...none of them will be 100% effective either and neither are masks but that doesn't mean you don't better your odds.

          As for movie theatres being better than other indoor venues. I personally think they are. People can spread out due to lower capacities and due to many modern recliner type seating. People face one direction and people don't talk/sing like in other venues...those activities tend to expel more air at higher velocities than just normal breathing or eating. Statistically, this is being born out by actual data...not just speculation.

          I'm not saying YOU or anyone else should feel comfortable with going to a cinema if you aren't. Nor are cinemas compulsory (though that would be nice) but I am saying, as far as indoor activities go, cinemas are as safe as any of them, at the moment and no data yet has show it to be otherwise.


          • #50
            Today I went to my local big chain pharmacy and got my flu shot. Just the typical flus which mutate any given year. On a good year, this vaccine will protect me from 60% of the flu viruses that are expected to be out among us all for the next 9 months or so. This is what is to be expected.

            Because viruses mutate, and this form of Covid is also expected to mutate, when the vaccines do come out they too may be 60% effective as to what will be among us all. My source is from a doctor on her syndicated radio program. Her name escapes me as I stopped listening as she aired locally on Sunday mornings and now that I'm working closing shifts again... yeah...

            The vaccines will not be the magic bullet but they will help, if these pass the trails without causing worse than usual side effects, then we should be gold.

            The same doctor also mentioned the viruses tend to weaken as they mutate, but can still be fatal to those who develop health problems later in life. Like the flu vaccines we will probably see new Covid vaccines released every year. And whoever develops the vaccines will guess wrong on a given year. They may be 30% or 40% effective.

            In my world view, the cinemas are safe. I'm one of those helping insure of that with the building I'm working in.

            We are in dire need of good movies.