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Topic: Study Shows That BitTorrent Piracy Doesn’t Affect U.S. Box Office Profits
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System Notices
Forum Watchdog / Soup Nazi
Posts: 215
Registered: Apr 2004
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posted 02-12-2012 12:01 PM
Study Shows That BitTorrent Piracy Doesn’t Affect U.S. Box Office Profits
quote:
by Eric Limer | 11:53 am, February 10th, 2012
Ever since what seems like the beginning of time, or at least the beginning of widespread digital piracy, groups like the RIAA and MPAA have been projecting their losses by assuming that every illegal download was actually a legitimate purchase lost. While the problems behind that logic may be clear to you or me, the fallacy persists in a lot of anti-piracy arguments. A new study, Reel Piracy: The Effect of Online Film Piracy on International Box Office Sales, has shown that BitTorrent has not had any actual effect on U.S. box office earnings and that a large percentage of losses due to piracy abroad may, in fact, be the movie industry’s own fault.
According to the study, the factor with the largest impact on piracy is the delay between U.S. and international releases of films. Because of the delay in international releases, often the only way to get a film may be to pirate or wait. Given that choice, anyone who doesn’t want to wait has to turn to piracy whereas if a legitimate venue of purchase was available, at least some of that revenue could be retained. The study estimates that if this pre-release piracy binge were eliminated — by releasing earlier, or simultaneously with the U.S. — overall losses could be reduced by 7%.
Furthermore, the study finds that the rise of BitTorrent has had no material impact on the U.S. box office revenue; U.S. box office revenue has not noticeably decreased. Considering the fact that international piracy seems to be caused primarily by unavailability, this would make sense; in the U.S., there is always a legal option at the get go. So how can all this piracy be happening, but not affecting revenue? Consider one of the oft neglected laws of piracy: Lots of people will only be interested in your stuff if it’s free.
Here’s a little cobbled-together, circumstantial evidence to back this up. Are you surprised to hear that Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End is the 10th top torrented movie of all time? Or that Green Lantern and Fast and Furious 5 took home numbers 15 and 25 (respectively) on the top searches of 2011 at a top-five torrent site? Why are these mediocre films hitting so high? Because they’re the kind of movies a lot people will watch only if they’re free.
Now none of this is to say that piracy still isn’t an issue of some sort, but rather it’s to say that it may not be as big a deal as the MPAA and RIAA would have you believe. Beyond that, the study’s real contribution is that it supports the idea that piracy is less a legal problem and more of a distribution problem. Maybe instead of making piracy harder (difficult, probably impossible) the movie industry should be focusing on making legitimate copies of films easier to buy and maybe better than the pirated versions somehow (less difficult).
https://torrentfreak.com/bittorrent-piracy-doesnt-effect-us-box-office-returns-study-finds-120210/
http://www.geekosystem.com/bittorrent-box-office-study/
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1986299
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Mike Blakesley
Film God
Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99
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posted 02-15-2012 08:26 PM
quote:
Why are these mediocre films hitting so high? Because they’re the kind of movies a lot people will watch only if they’re free.
It's sort of a stupid argument, the way people keep saying "Most of the downloaders wouldn't have paid for the content anyway, so the industry is not losing as much money as it says it is, therefore downloading really isn't that big of a problem."
Well that's not really the point. The point is, the downloaders are GETTING SOMETHING of value without paying for it. Whether they would have ever paid for it legitimately makes no difference at all.
In other words, what they are doing is wrong. It is stealing. It is theft. They're taking somebody else's work and using it without paying the asked-for price.
This whole notion that everybody should just be able to have whatever they want for nothing when it comes to "content" is ridiculous.
I wish the stupid media and the industry pundits would try to get THAT point across instead of beating the old "billions of dollars lost" dead horse over and over.
Do some downloaders "sample" the product and then, if they like it, go out and buy it? Definitely, yes. But they're not supposed to be able to take the whole thing and "use" it before they pay for it. That's the same as if I went to a restaurant and ordered a big meal, ate it, and then said MAYBE I'll pay for it, if I like it -- but maybe not.
This is why we have things like trailers, reviews, and word-of-mouth.
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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today
Posts: 12859
From: Denver, Colorado
Registered: May 99
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posted 02-16-2012 04:33 AM
Justin, they need to make the tickets around $8 or so, tippy top. What are the advantages I get from seeing a movie in the theater vs waiting and paying twice as much for the Blu-ray or renting the Blu-ray for about 1/9th of the cost? Let's see:
1) - The "Big screen" experience. Fuck this shit. There are very few big screens any more and the ones that exist charge even more. While I would like a bigger TV for my entertainment room, seeing a movie on a 55 foot screen sitting 100 feet away wouldn't be more impressive than watching a 60 inch screen sitting 6 or 7 feet away with nearly the same image resolution.
2) - The "Big sound". Once again, this is bullshit. Movie theater sound sucks ass. Some exhibition execs like those at Regal would simply claim that I don't know what good sound is or that their theaters are "how it is supposed to sound", but both are absolutely untrue due to their incompetence. There are a few theaters throughout the world here and there that might be adequate, but over 99% of movie theaters have shitty sound. Oh, but of course I don't mean YOUR theater or anyone else's theater who participates here on Film-Tech. I'm entirely sure everyone's theater here has absolutely wonderful sound that we would all be proud of. Nobody here commits the atrocities we look down upon otherwise they wouldn't be members on Film-Tech, would they? I guarantee I'd be disappointed in the presentation quality of most members here. But there are some whom I'd admire their dedication to quality despite things being out of their control (mainly projectionists who have to work with shitty equipment and owners).
Little story: Brad and I once re-tuned all of the sound systems in a certain theater and when the tech got wind of it he yelled at me. I told him that we fixed the sound and that it was finally right. He screamed "No, you made it sound how YOU want it to sound". He was right. But I replied that the way I wanted it to sound was with the correct levels, EQ and phase.
3) - To "experience" the movie with a real crowd. The ONLY time this is an advantage is for comedies which are actually good because hearing other people laugh makes it easier for you to laugh. Otherwise shut the hell up, I'm trying to watch the movie! That right there negates the audience presence. "But but... what about normal movies that have bits of funny here and there that the entire audience can laugh at, like Pixar movies" you ask? No. Go away, I'd rather watch it without everyone. Bizarre stuff like Rocky Horror Picture Show obviously works better with an audience (so I hear) but that is so far beyond my taste that it does not equate.
4) - A night out on the town, great for dates! No way. It's great for people who don't like to talk to each other, but again you can do that at home with Blu-ray. It is actually anti-date since unless you're talking during the movie, you're not making much of the date (insert predictable jokes about making out here). There are many things you can do that are more fun and less wasteful than going to a movie theater. I have also never sat in a movie theater that was comfortable, either. I MUST put my legs up if I am going to be parked on my ass for over an hour and sitting in the weird sections that allow this degrade other aspects of the theater.
5) - The delicious movie snacks from the concession stand enhance the moviegoing experience. Only for stupid and/or fat people. I never, ever buy stuff from the stand. You don't want me at your theater because I will destroy your per-cap and complain about your shitty presentation. Eat before going to the theater and save a fortune, people! Is it any wonder why people make idiotic decisions with their money and why we're in a financial crisis? Hardly. People love being stupid with their money.
6) - You get to see the movie when it is brand new. THIS. This is the best and only good reason to go to a movie theater. They have exclusive product and people are impatient, they want shit NOW. This is the only advantage movie theaters have over Blu-ray and is the main reason why theaters still exist.
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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."
Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001
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posted 02-16-2012 03:52 PM
Running down some of Joe's points:
Re. #1: Big Screen Experience
1080p on HDTV or 2K in the movie theater looks good scaled up to only so large a size. TV manufacturers are now selling TV sets that measure 6' or 7' diagonally. Unless you sit back a farther distance the picture starts getting soft when 1080p content is scaled up that big. Likewise I'd rather watch 2K digital projected on a standard sized screen rather than blown up to soft and mushy quality on a 80' wide screen.
Re. #2: Big Sound
I think this was the same theater Joe and I visited on Denver's south side. They eventually made sure to undo the corrections Brad and Joe made, with the end product being bland, not so dynamic sound.
Re. #3: The Crowd Experience
Right now the theater crowd is the biggest problem with the movie-going experience. Too many people farting around with their phones and doing other inconsiderate things. Even personal hygiene comes into play. The lady I took to the theater last Saturday night had much of her viewing experienced ruined because the lady sitting to her right had horrible breath. I didn't know about this until after the show; I might have offered to switch seats. But I'm glad I didn't in retrospect since some very under-handed shit went down with her earlier this week.
Re. #4: Date Night
Yeah, I'll take ladies I'm seeing to the movies. You can't do much there other than hold hands. If you're sitting in a back row you can get away with more kissy kiss nonsense. Flip up the armrest and let her rest her legs across your lap. OTOH, I can do a whole lot more with a girlfriend in my living room while watching a Blu-ray disc. And if things get too hot you can hit the pause button and take care of business!
Re. #5: Snacks
This is kind of another date night thing. About the only time I make a significant purchase from the snack counter is if I'm taking a lady to the show. They want popcorn and I don't want to seem like a cheapskake. If I'm going alone I'll probably skip the counter entirely, but I'll buy something if I'm in there on a discount pass.
Re. #6: Exclusivity
If new movies were released on home video and in movie theaters simultaneously it would literally kill the commercial movie theater business very rapidly. People are price conscious. Some die hard movie fans would probably still go to the theater, but not enough to keep the vast majority of theater locations operating in the black. Then the movie industry itself would experience a very severe decline due to the disappearance of the best showcase to advertise their best product: commercial movie theaters. Without movie theaters any movie would be a made for TV movie.
One thing I think does need to happen regarding "windows" is that movies should be released in theaters across the globe all on the same day. There's little need anymore to stagger international release dates. That would take away one of the motives of Internet piracy. Quite a few downloaders are in foreign markets where a certain movie hasn't played yet. They have no other source to see the show than Internet torrents. The same thing should be done with the video releases too. Get the disc out in all territories at the same time.
quote: Mike Blakesley
I totally agree with the point about the screeners. They are evil. But, there IS a lot of camcording going on. We get the NATO camcord report every month or so and it's got a pretty long list of places where camcord people are caught. So it's not like screeners are the WHOLE problem.
Nevertheless, the camcorder guys are bootlegging what would essentially be a horrible quality download. Quite a few of the camcorder people are idiots just wanting to post snippets of movies to YouTube to get more people to follow them and stroke their own egos. They're not bootlegging out of a money-making motive.
On the other hand, the mass replicator outfits in China, Russia, etc. using DVD screener discs as good quality sources are indeed committing piracy out of a money making motive.
I turn my nose up at any pirated movie content whether it is on a DVD at a flea market or a torrent on Pirate Bay. It isn't as good as what I can watch on a Blu-ray disc bought via retail or rented at a video store. I value my free time and if I'm going to spend 2 hours of it watching a movie I expect the picture and sound quality to be in a range of very good to outstanding.
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