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» Film-Tech Forum   » Operations   » Ground Level   » Is this year the most underwhelming holiday film lineup ever? (Page 1)

 
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Author Topic: Is this year the most underwhelming holiday film lineup ever?
Michael Riley
Film Handler

Posts: 52
From: New Jersey
Registered: Apr 2010


 - posted 12-14-2010 09:54 AM      Profile for Michael Riley   Email Michael Riley       Edit/Delete Post 
I've only been working in the business for about 7 years now, but I think this year may be the worst holiday lineup I've seen so far. With Narnia having bombed this week, and early projections for Tron showing that it might go the same way, it's been a bad season for business. Even the usual can't miss films like Harry Potter and Tangled have underperformed, and I really don't think the Fockers or Gullivers Travels will be enough to turn business around. Is it really just the film product that's to blame here, or might this be a sign to come for 2011?

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12603
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99


 - posted 12-14-2010 10:48 AM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
It is an uninspired year. It's the first year in quite a while that there hasn't been a big decision to make over what to play on the break -- this year we aren't playing anything on the break, except Harry Potter.

I always thought Narnia looked like soiled goods after Disney dropped the franchise. I never could (and still don't) understand why they are making a Tron sequel when the original was nothing to crow about.

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Michael Brown
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1522
From: Bradford, England
Registered: May 2001


 - posted 12-14-2010 10:55 AM      Profile for Michael Brown   Email Michael Brown   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Tron could be this years Speed Racer.

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

Posts: 12859
From: Denver, Colorado
Registered: May 99


 - posted 12-14-2010 11:04 AM      Profile for Joe Redifer   Author's Homepage   Email Joe Redifer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Hopefully Tron will at least be a good movie. Speed Racer definitely was not. Mike, it had a niche appeal, certainly not everyone's cop o' tea. I enjoyed it.

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James Westbrook
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1121
From: Lubbock, Texas, Usa
Registered: Mar 2006


 - posted 12-14-2010 11:26 AM      Profile for James Westbrook   Email James Westbrook   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I am leaning, somewhat ambivalently, toward True Grit being the main holiday film. The children are not going to want to see it, but it should score with the "Secretariat" crowd. (In my neck of the woods, those are people who are old enough to enroll in AARP.)

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Adam Fraser
Master Film Handler

Posts: 498
From: Houghton Lake, MI, USA
Registered: Dec 2001


 - posted 12-14-2010 12:06 PM      Profile for Adam Fraser   Author's Homepage   Email Adam Fraser   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
This year has been lackluster from beginning to end, with a semi decent early fall for us.

Films seem to be dropping off faster and faster with studios that seem to require longer runs at higher percentages for average films.

We have also been denied several films by studios that we wanted to play, even when we could have grossed $6-10k on opening week for them. I know those are not great numbers for a 20 plex in a metro area, but they are good for a small town single.

Mike, have you been denied any first runs since you went digital?

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Tom Petrov
Five Guys Lover

Posts: 1121
From: El Paso, TX
Registered: Jan 2003


 - posted 12-14-2010 12:23 PM      Profile for Tom Petrov     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Michael Riley
early projections for Tron showing that it might go the same way
I am curious to know where you got this information from?

I don't think its been a bad year so far. Last weekends movies were off just 1% from the year before.

quote:
can't miss films like Harry Potter and Tangled have underperformed,
Please, tell me how these two movies have underperformed?

Harry Potter is projected to finish at $300m, and Tangled is projected to finish at $175m.

Also, Unstoppable didn't do too bad, $75m and Due Date is at about $100m right now.

And lets not forget Megamind. $140m.

We still have Black Swan to go wide and The Fighter which both will do very well.

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Adam Fraser
Master Film Handler

Posts: 498
From: Houghton Lake, MI, USA
Registered: Dec 2001


 - posted 12-14-2010 12:32 PM      Profile for Adam Fraser   Author's Homepage   Email Adam Fraser   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Harry Potter had respectable 1st and 2nd weeks for us, the worst 3rd and 4th weeks we have ever had for any 4 week run of any film in the past 10 years.

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Tom Petrov
Five Guys Lover

Posts: 1121
From: El Paso, TX
Registered: Jan 2003


 - posted 12-14-2010 12:36 PM      Profile for Tom Petrov     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Adam Fraser
Harry Potter had respectable 1st and 2nd weeks for us, the worst 3rd and 4th weeks we have ever had for any 4 week run of any film in the past 10 years.
Yeah, well it also had the highest ever debut for a Harry Potter film.

So, the drop means nothing.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12603
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99


 - posted 12-14-2010 12:52 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
We had the same Potter results. Week 1 and 2 were good, week 3 was crickets.

Adam - the only problems we've had are on some of the bigger titles, they've wanted 3 or 4 weeks when with film we might have gotten them for 2 weeks. (But it's possible they were pushing for 3 or 4 weeks on those titles on film too this year -- I don't know.)

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Michael Riley
Film Handler

Posts: 52
From: New Jersey
Registered: Apr 2010


 - posted 12-14-2010 12:53 PM      Profile for Michael Riley   Email Michael Riley       Edit/Delete Post 
Numbers I saw from Rentrak a few days ago had Tron pegged at a 35 million dollar OW, which for a movie with that level of hype and that kind of budget would be a bomb at worst and a huge dissappointment at best.

And in a world with higher ticket prices than ever before, including premium prices for 3-D and IMAX shows, doing just as good as previous entries in the series or movies that came out 5 years ago isn't very good at all.

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Tom Petrov
Five Guys Lover

Posts: 1121
From: El Paso, TX
Registered: Jan 2003


 - posted 12-14-2010 01:03 PM      Profile for Tom Petrov     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Michael Riley
Numbers I saw from Rentrak a few days ago had Tron pegged at a 35 million dollar OW
Rentrak is wrong.

1. Jeff Bridges (reprisiing his role and he is an Oscar winner)
2. 3D from the "get-go" and not some 3D conversion like Narnia
3. Tron is the perfect type of movie for 3D
4. Rumours are circulating that Tron will push 3D boundries.

If these four are true, and the reviews are at least good, we will see a $60m opening.

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Sam Graham
AKA: "The Evil Sam Graham". Wackiness ensues.

Posts: 1419
From: Waukee, IA
Registered: Dec 2004


 - posted 12-14-2010 01:28 PM      Profile for Sam Graham   Author's Homepage   Email Sam Graham   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
There's a reason the original "Tron" is out of print and nowhere to be found on TV leading up to Legacy's debut...Disney doesn't want anybody to remember it because they think it'll hurt the new one.

And based on the actors and dialog in the trailers, I keep making comparisons to NBC's Knight Rider redux.

And Narnia...I didn't even know that was coming until two weeks before its opening when Brian sent me info for the website that he was launching it on the break. NOBODY was talking about that one. I didn't see a trailer for it ever in theaters, and there was NO television until about a week before.

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John Wilson
Film God

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From: Sydney, Australia.
Registered: Dec 1999


 - posted 12-14-2010 01:59 PM      Profile for John Wilson   Email John Wilson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Michael Riley
Numbers I saw from Rentrak a few days ago had Tron pegged at a 35 million dollar OW
Are the folks at Rentrak on drugs or something?

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Kurt Zupin
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 989
From: Maricopa, Arizona
Registered: Oct 2004


 - posted 12-14-2010 02:08 PM      Profile for Kurt Zupin   Email Kurt Zupin   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Tom Petrov
Rentrak is wrong.

1. Jeff Bridges (reprisiing his role and he is an Oscar winner)
2. 3D from the "get-go" and not some 3D conversion like Narnia
3. Tron is the perfect type of movie for 3D
4. Rumours are circulating that Tron will push 3D boundries.

If these four are true, and the reviews are at least good, we will see a $60m opening.

Tom Petrov is wrong.

Tron pushs nothing in 3D. Absolutely nothing! They could of done so many things with it, but failed to do so. Maybe they should of spent some of the money that they spent on the Effects, on the script. Jeff Bridges is a great actor, but he is not a bankable star, far from it actually. He has only two movies that have ever grossed over $100 million. Iron Man @ $318,412,101 and Seabiscuit @ $120,277,854. He has also only opened one movie over $20 million, that was Iron Man. Seabiscuit was next at $20.8 million. (Mr. Bridges Boxoffice numbers) I love Jeff Bridges, but he is not gaurantee that this film will be huge. I think it'll have a strong opening and a good 2nd and possible third with the Christmas business. Tron will probably open in the $40-50mil range, and its going to have a sharp drop after. I maybe wrong on this but I don't think I'm far off. I would be shocked if it opened north of $60 Million.

This year may be on par with last year as far as attendance and boxoffice receipts. But the quality of films coming out this year is not on par with last year. This is the worst summer we have seen in possibly the past 5 years. Sure, there are good movies. That happens every year, you always know that once the fall hits your going to see some good/great films. Thats a horrible argument. Also "Black Swan" will not do awsome when it goes wide, "Black Swan" is not for everyone. Ballet is going to turn off a number of people, it will do good but not gangbusters. Fighter has more wide appeal then "Black Swan" because of the stars and its a story that has a wider appeal to the general moving going public.

quote: Tom Petrov
Yeah, well it also had the highest ever debut for a Harry Potter film.

So, the drop means nothing.

This drop means everything!! Guys like Adam and Mike who are only going to show this film for 3 or 4 weeks, this means the world. A film that has no legs and blows its load in the first week or two makes them almost no money. Even for the megaplex's that drop means the world. After the first two weeks, I showed Harry Potter to an average of 8 customers a show during the weekdays at the IMAX. And I would say our average at the main side was in the 15 or so people a show range. Weekends were not much better. So please Tom, explain why Potter dropping 60% its second weekend, and 50% in its 3rd and 4th weekends means nothing? We are all dying to hear [Roll Eyes]

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