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Topic: WALL-E vs. HANCOCK

Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 06-04-2008 10:47 PM

In this corner, the newest movie from Pixar, the studio that hasn't had a flop yet but is coming off their lowest grosser (Ratatouille).

And in THIS corner, the latest movie from Will Smith, who has also never really had a flop and has dominated multiple 4th of July weekends.

Which one looks like the better grosser and why? We are going with WALL-E on the break but hope to get Hancock in before July is over.

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Kurt Zupin
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 989
From: Maricopa, Arizona
Registered: Oct 2004

posted 06-04-2008 10:54 PM

Wall-E will do good with the families, Pixar always does good with them. Right now the big problem with Hancock is that it can't get past an R rating. Thats a big blow if it can't get down to a PG-13. Right now they are reshooting a lot of scenes to try and get it down. If Hancock gets down to a PG-13 rating I think it will win out between the two, but still not be in the top three for the summer. Still look for Wall-E to be in the 200-225 mil range

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Chris Slycord
Film God

Posts: 2986
From: 퍼항시, 경상푹도, South Korea
Registered: Mar 2007

posted 06-04-2008 11:03 PM

Wall-E will win

PIXAR movies appeal to people of all ages. Little ones, adults, teens. Everyone. And the main character and story (at least what I saw in the trailers) are immensely cute and funny.

And the trailers I've ran for Hancock seem pretty dumb even though the movie looks like something I'd enjoy.

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Lyle Romer
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1400
From: Davie, FL, USA
Registered: May 2002

posted 06-04-2008 11:09 PM

If Wall-E is good it will win between the two. Hancock will surely do very well also. Wall-E can probably do Finding Nemo type business if it is a good story and the kids (and adults too) fall in love with the character.

The interesting thing to see on Wall-E is how the dialog free first reel works out. All there is for the first 20 minutes is robot noises (or so I have been told).

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Justin Hamaker
Film God

Posts: 2253
From: Lakeport, CA USA
Registered: Jan 2004

posted 06-04-2008 11:14 PM

quote: Kurt Zupin
Right now the big problem with Hancock is that it can't get past an R rating.

Actually, the official site for Hancock has displayed a PG-13 for over a week now. Although it's still listed as TBD on Sony's exhibitor relations site and CARA's website doesn't list a rating.

I think Hancock will win the Fourth of July weekend for two reasons. First is that Will Smith is a huge box office draw and will fill lots of seats. Whether Hancock has legs will depend on if it's any good. I would expect the 5 day gross (Wed-Sun) to be better than $150 million.

Secondly, it will be the second weekend for Wall-E and unless it's exceptionally good, it's hard to see it not having a drop the second weekend.

quote: Mike Blakesley
In this corner, the newest movie from Pixar, the studio that hasn't had a flop yet but is coming off their lowest grosser (Ratatouille).

Ratatouille is actually the third lowest grossing Pixar movie ahead of Toy Story and A Bugs Life - although both would certainly be higher if adjusted for inflation. Pixar films on Box Office Mojo

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Ross Oba
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 181
From: Kailua Kona, HI
Registered: Oct 2005

posted 06-04-2008 11:23 PM

This is a no-brainer. Wall-E will beat Hancock hands down. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hancock will flop. The only reason is because it doesn't look very good. The trailers make it look silly when supposedly it's a dark movie.

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Geoff Jones
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 579
From: Broomfield, CO, USA
Registered: Feb 2006

posted 06-04-2008 11:46 PM

Wall-E is going to be so good that everyone else is going to give up and stop making movies.

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Kurt Zupin
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 989
From: Maricopa, Arizona
Registered: Oct 2004

posted 06-05-2008 12:54 AM

quote: Justin Hamaker
Actually, the official site for Hancock has displayed a PG-13 for over a week now. Although it's still listed as TBD on Sony's exhibitor relations site and CARA's website doesn't list a rating.

According to "some one I know", it is still not rated and it's last attempt with the MPAA was an R rating. This was as of last Thursday.

[ 06-05-2008, 06:14 AM: Message edited by: Kurt Zupin ]

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Ben Goodman
Film Handler

Posts: 32
From: Danbury, CT
Registered: Apr 2008

posted 06-05-2008 01:14 AM

I think most people underestimate Will Smith, especially Will Smith in July. He is the #1 box office pull in the world right now. Don't get me wrong, I think Wall-E will do well to the tune of $140 mil on the opening weekend-- and Wall-E will certainly do better in the concession stand-- but Hancock overall will blow the doors off the theatre.

I think the real competition is between Hancock and The Dark Knight. If both of them are PG13, it's going to be neck and neck.

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Darryl Spicer
Film God

Posts: 3250
From: Lexington, KY, USA
Registered: Dec 2000

posted 06-05-2008 01:44 AM

Hancock is going to be huge. The newest trailer will be enclosed with Zohan and it really looks good now. The film companies are also going to allow shows as early as 7:00 pm Tuesday night.

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Shane Cooper
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 232
From: Little Rock, Arkansas
Registered: Jun 2004

posted 06-05-2008 02:40 AM

quote: Ross Oba
This is a no-brainer. Wall-E will beat Hancock hands down. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hancock will flop. The only reason is because it doesn't look very good. The trailers make it look silly when supposedly it's a dark movie.

While I agree that Wall-E will win overall, ($230 mil range), I think it is harsh to say that it will flop. I often feel like Will Smith can take a [bs]

in a box for 90 minutes and it will make 100 million. The guy is money.

That being said, the popular thought is that Will Smith is Mr. July. In reality he has only had two movies released in July that have grossed higher than 200 mil, (Independence Day in '96 with $306,169,260 and Men In Black in '97 with $250,690,539).

While those two grosses are impressive, since '97 he has released 4 movies in July that have averaged just $146,908,488, (I, Robot in '04, Bad Boys II in '03, Men In Black II in '02 and Wild, Wild West in '99).

I think that Hancock will need to be closer to the $256,393,010 that I Am Legend grossed last fall to beat Pixar.

All grosses from Box Office Mojo's Will Smith page.

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Justin Hamaker
Film God

Posts: 2253
From: Lakeport, CA USA
Registered: Jan 2004

posted 06-05-2008 03:36 AM

Kurt
I'm really curious now about the rating on Hancock. I read an article a few weeks ago that said they had finally got it down to a PG-13. The official site lists PG-13 as does Yahoo Movies, but every other movie site I've check still lists not rated.

The reason why I'm curious about this is Sony is one of the studios that has a habit of being squirrelly when it comes to dealing properly with the ratings. Specifically, not sending out rated materials and not having the rating out until the last minute.

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Kurt Zupin
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 989
From: Maricopa, Arizona
Registered: Oct 2004

posted 06-05-2008 06:18 AM

Justin,

My assumption is with putting the PG-13 tag on everything is that is what they are banking on. I am also interested in the rating, because if it doesn't get the PG-13 rating then watch out for the bomb it will be. The only problem is how much will they have to cut/edit to get it down to PG-13, that also could kill the boxoffice take. I just searched the MPAA website and they havn't posted a rating yet.

While I never said Wall-E wouldn't be big, I just really can't see it doing Finding Nemo numbers.

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Mark Gulbrandsen
Resident Trollmaster

Posts: 16657
From: Music City
Registered: Jun 99

posted 06-05-2008 08:01 AM

I think Wall-E will somke the other films released at the same time. Pixar ALWAYS wins!

Mark

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Mike Olpin
Chop Chop!

Posts: 1852
From: Dallas, TX
Registered: Jan 2002

posted 06-05-2008 10:41 AM

WALL•E will have legs, and do good business throughout its run. I think Hancock will blow its load opening weekend.

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