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This topic comprises 3 pages: 1 2 3
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Topic: How many years does film have left?
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Leo Enticknap
Film God
Posts: 7474
From: Loma Linda, CA
Registered: Jul 2000
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posted 06-15-2006 12:47 PM
The real tipping point will come when theatres move to digital projection on a significant scale, thereby reducing the demand for lab services and film stock, which in turn will reduce economies of scale and send the price of film-based imaging sky high. If you think about it, the quantities of camera and intermediate stock made and processed are tiny compared with that of release print stock (say, 200,000 feet of camera negative, assuming a two-hour feature with a 20:1 shooting ratio, compared with the release print footage needed for 1,000 prints of that feature); so as long as sales of release print stock and processing remain high, film as a medium remains economically viable.
But, given the capital investment needed at the exhibition end, I can't see the bulk of mainstream theatres going digital until the standards and compatibility issues finally shake down (from what I understand, DCI hasn't gained universal acceptance) and until studios are willing to subsidise the investment costs of theatres. There don't seem to be any immediate signs of this happening. My gut feeling is 5-10 years. When it does, I think that film will rapidly become a niche market product for high-quality camera origination and creating archival preservation elements. How long it will continue to be manufactured after that is anybody's guess.
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John Pytlak
Film God
Posts: 9987
From: Rochester, NY 14650-1922
Registered: Jan 2000
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posted 06-15-2006 12:58 PM
Well, it's been 7 years since all the Digital Cinema hype started at ShoWest 1999. I was on the stage at Bally's, pointing out the differences between the side-by-side film and digital projection, which were very obvious from up-close.
Here is what I wrote after that ShoWest demonstration seven years ago in the Kodak publication H-50-51 "Film Notes for Reel People" in June 1999:
Electronic Cinema - What Did You See?
quote:
Electronic Cinema What Did YOU See?
Everyone seems to be talking about electronic cinema. After the ShoWest demonstrations comparing two prototype electronic cinema projectors with a conventionally projected film print, many felt that electronically projected images were finally approaching the quality of 35mm film projection.
Sure, the film images seemed to have better color reproduction and flesh tones-and a bit more fine detail and sharpness. And there were questions regarding the cost and complexity of the digital equipment in the theatre-and the level of expertise required maintaining and operating it. But, ShoWest was a technical demonstration and so, to be fair, let's consider electronic projection and film projection from a technical point of view...
So what did you see? I saw that electronic projection has come a long way in the last 10 years. I saw electronically projected images that were bright and sharp on moderately sized screens. But I also saw lots of work before we have an electronic projection SYSTEM that can compare technically - and in so many
other ways - to what we have with a film projection SYSTEM today.
Pretty accurate in my prediction. ![[Wink]](wink.gif)
Seven years later, the Digital Cinema standards are finally coming into place, the original 1280 X 1024 pixel projectors are considered obsolete, almost a thousand 2K Digital Cinema installations are in place, 4K is finally being beta tested in theatres, and Kodak is one of the major "players" in Digital Cinema.
Yet, Digital Cinema is only on about 1 percent of theatre screens worldwide. Film is still a very cost-effective method of distributing feature films, with a "business case" and proven track record that's hard to beat. 2005 was a record year for Kodak motion-picture film, with well over 10 BILLION feet of film sold worldwide.
As Mark Twain once wrote: "Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated".
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Warren Smyth
Expert Film Handler
Posts: 158
From: Auckland ,New Zealand
Registered: Aug 2003
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posted 06-15-2006 08:02 PM
quote:
Film will be around untill I'm dead
I remember film editors in the television industry saying that 25 years ago. Some of those who used this claim as a reason to avoid retraining in video tape were redundant within two years.
While I don't share Ian's confidence on the future use of film in theatres, I think he is correct in his advice for projection staff to retrain. It's the only way I survived.
If we consider the rapid demise of 16mm film once mobile video cameras and VCRs came available, it is clear that change can occur quickly once the economic conditions are favourable. The driving force is often the ecomomy of scale which cranks up the quality and lowers the price.
The greatest scale however, is not going to come from multiplexes but from the consumer home market. Perhaps rather than asking how long will film last? we should be asking for how long will theatres have the technical advantage over home entertainment. irrespective of the medium used.
I know what Singing in the Rain and King Kong looks and sounds like in my theatrette at home from just a DVD. They are pretty damned good. What is Phantom of the Opera going to look like on HD DVD? - even better.
The question is, if one looks at the total package - no ads, an intermission at will, no popcorn smell, no parking hassels, no annoying patrons nearby, a picture that is not magnified beyond it's resolution capability, available exras on the disk, to name just some advatages, can the multiplex compete?
I know that the result at home is not as good as I presented to audiences when I screened Lawrence of Arabia and Chitty Chitty Ban Bang in 70mm but that was a long long time ago. The "bang" has long left the minds of audiences and the current young crop wouldn't know what 70mm film is. Many think movies come from a disk anyway. In short, the industry is responcible for the reduction in standards over the years and very soon, may not be able to compete with home entertainment.
In the fifties it was easy with wide screen systems swamping the impact of small black and white TV set. Today the competition is a far bigger monster. Don't worry about the life of film, there are much larger concerns.
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Cameron Glendinning
Jedi Master Film Handler
Posts: 845
From: West Ryde, Sydney, NSW Australia
Registered: Dec 2005
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posted 06-16-2006 12:23 AM
Nicely put ![[Smile]](smile.gif) ,My guess is <7 years. Did you know that the first test of a video projector in a cinema was done in New York in 1929? I kid you not! Personally I'm tired digital vs 35mm comparisons, digital cinema is going to have to be vastly better than 35mm to recapture the audience and to draw the audience back to cinemas
In the 50s, it was Color, Wide Screen, 6 track sound that made cinema relevent in the B&W tv era. Interactive Computer Games, Large plasmas screens, 5.1 sound and the introduction of HD & blue ray means that the cinema offers no real advantage over watching it at home. You can simply see it first.
Film can be vastly better by simply speeding it up, 60 fps is the ideal for the human eye. Digital technology really should not be limited to 24fps, perhaps a variable rate 24-60fps digital projector would be a dramatic step in the right direction.
Over the last 7 years digital projectors have dramatically improved, and I'm sure within 7 years will be getting to a stage where they are better than the film technology of today. Who knows 60fps digital technology may make 70mm look old hat ,I hope someone gives it a try. I also wish that the cinema image of the future is better than the best of today, not simply a digital projector designed to be more of the same.
Sound wise a move away from bass refex boxes would also be a great first step! 4 way active technology has been an ideal since the 1950s and now is getting affordable!
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