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» Film-Tech Forum ARCHIVE   » Operations   » Ground Level   » DaVinci Code vs. Over the Hedge: Which will dominate? (Page 1)

 
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Author Topic: DaVinci Code vs. Over the Hedge: Which will dominate?
Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99


 - posted 04-20-2006 08:35 PM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I had sorta figured "Da Vinci Code" would be the blockbuster-to-beat for late May, but now here comes Premiere magazine predicting that Over The Hedge will be slightly bigger. ($180 mil, vs. their prediction of $170M for DaVinci.) As the owner of a single-screen, it's my annual dilemma: Which to open?

I like the idea of a virtually guaranteed kid audience for Hedge, but the prospect of a nice blockbuster for grownups (that's also a little controversial) is tempting. Thoughts?

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Matt Fields
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 545
From: Ohio, United States
Registered: Jun 2005


 - posted 04-20-2006 09:10 PM      Profile for Matt Fields   Email Matt Fields   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I vote for Over the Hedge, but I don't know your audience. In my bible belt town, it will definetly be bigger than Da Vinci.

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Matt Kerekes
Film Handler

Posts: 73
From: Rio Rancho, NM
Registered: Oct 2004


 - posted 04-20-2006 11:03 PM      Profile for Matt Kerekes   Email Matt Kerekes   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
What if you tried Over the Hedge for 2 or 3 shows during the day and Da Vinci Code for 2 or 3 shows at night.

ie: OTH 10:30, 12:30, 2:30
DVC 4:30, 7:30, 10:30

??? Just a thought, maybe you would be required more showings in order to keep the movies?

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Dustin Mitchell
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1865
From: Mondovi, WI, USA
Registered: Mar 2000


 - posted 04-20-2006 11:10 PM      Profile for Dustin Mitchell   Email Dustin Mitchell   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I can't imagine Sony and Dreamworks not requiring Da Vinci and Hedge to run 'clean' on the first weekend. I suppose it wouldn't hurt to ask.

Personally I see Da Vinci doing a lot more than 170, but that's just me.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99


 - posted 04-21-2006 02:52 AM      Profile for Mike Blakesley   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Blakesley   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
quote: Matt Kerekes
What if you tried Over the Hedge for 2 or 3 shows during the day and Da Vinci Code for 2 or 3 shows at night.
There's no way either film co would allow that, and even if they would, school will still be on here so the grosses would suck for those matinees during the week.

As for our audience here....pretty mainstream, not overly religious. Our top-ten every year pretty much mirrors the nationwide top ten.

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Matt Fields
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 545
From: Ohio, United States
Registered: Jun 2005


 - posted 04-21-2006 07:42 AM      Profile for Matt Fields   Email Matt Fields   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
If you mirror the nation, you might want to consider Da Vinci. The scoop I've heard is that Sony expects it to do 250 mil.

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Matt Kerekes
Film Handler

Posts: 73
From: Rio Rancho, NM
Registered: Oct 2004


 - posted 04-21-2006 07:44 AM      Profile for Matt Kerekes   Email Matt Kerekes   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I would go with Da Vinci also in that case, I think it will do better, there will always be another kid movie, but not a movie with as much surrounding it as Da Vinci Code.

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Chad Souder
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 962
From: Waterloo, IA, USA
Registered: Feb 2000


 - posted 04-21-2006 10:12 AM      Profile for Chad Souder   Email Chad Souder   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I would go with Hedge because matinee per caps are way higher. Parents always buy those little shits what they want to keep them from crying.

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Jonathan M. Crist
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 531
From: Hershey, PA, USA
Registered: Apr 2000


 - posted 04-21-2006 11:31 AM      Profile for Jonathan M. Crist   Email Jonathan M. Crist   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Hedge will beat the pants off Divinci Code

Why?????

Well for starters look at what has been doing business this year. Only family and teen horror. But then again about the only thing Hollywood has released this year is family and teen horror.

And why has Hollywood focused on family and teen horror ?

Because that is the primary audience that still goes to movie theatres.

The older more sophisticated adults (e.g. those who can afford fancy home theatres) are simply waiting for the DVDS. And in the case of Divinci it is not a big special efffects laden thing that
might be viewed by this audience as playing better on the "big screen"

I see Hedge toping out at about 250 Million and Divinci at about 150 to 170.

Go with Hedge - At least that audience buys double buttered popcorns. It is one of the basic rules of booking ...... when in doubt book for the concession stand since as we all know that is where the money is made.

FWIW, here is how I see the summer ending up

Pirates 330
Cars 280
Hedge 250
Superman 225
X3 200
MI3 200**
Monster House 180
Davinci 150 - 170
Click 140

Poseidon & Miami Vice will both be DOA.

**If Tom Cruise keeps acting weird on the front pages then you may have to deduct 20% off this one.

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Mike Spaeth
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1129
From: Marietta, GA
Registered: Jul 2000


 - posted 04-21-2006 01:12 PM      Profile for Mike Spaeth   Author's Homepage   Email Mike Spaeth   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
Davinci Code will be the better picture $220 mil vs. $130 mil.

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Lyle Romer
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1400
From: Davie, FL, USA
Registered: May 2002


 - posted 04-21-2006 01:31 PM      Profile for Lyle Romer   Email Lyle Romer   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I'd go with Da Vinci. The book was entertaining, the previews look good and it has Tom Hanks. On the other hand, IMHO Over the Hedge doesn't look good at all. Other than the Shrek franchise, have Dreamworks cartoons really performed that well? I realize I'm comparing a cartoon to an adult movie but I like cartoons. My fiancee and I go to see almost all of them.

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Jeremy Jorgenson
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1002
From: Chicago, IL, USA
Registered: Feb 2005


 - posted 04-21-2006 01:51 PM      Profile for Jeremy Jorgenson   Author's Homepage   Email Jeremy Jorgenson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I'd go with The Da Vinci Code.

quote: Jonathan M. Crist
The older more sophisticated adults (e.g. those who can afford fancy home theatres) are simply waiting for the DVDS.
Except that, if there IS controversy, then "older more sophisticated adults" would prefer to see it sooner to have more insight if the topic of conversation ever comes up.

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Ross Oba
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 181
From: Kailua Kona, HI
Registered: Oct 2005


 - posted 04-21-2006 02:44 PM      Profile for Ross Oba   Email Ross Oba   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I have been hearing that DVC will have a moderate opening with strong legs. OTH might have a big opening but shorter legs.

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Caleb Johnstone-Cowan
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 593
From: London, UK
Registered: Mar 2006


 - posted 04-21-2006 06:41 PM      Profile for Caleb Johnstone-Cowan   Email Caleb Johnstone-Cowan   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
If you're the only cinema for a while around then run Da Vinci Code in the first week it opens. It looks like a film where everyone will see it in the first week.

Then when school finishes you can run Over The Hedge and if Da Vinci Code is still doing well put it on the last showing if possible. Would definitely run Over The Hedge if your cinema does well on kids films.

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Sam Graham
AKA: "The Evil Sam Graham". Wackiness ensues.

Posts: 1431
From: Waukee, IA
Registered: Dec 2004


 - posted 04-21-2006 09:28 PM      Profile for Sam Graham   Author's Homepage   Email Sam Graham   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post 
I have a sneaking suspicion that Da Vinci is going to tank in a "King Kong" sort of way...It'll make money, but not nearly what the studio is thinking.

quote: Jonathan M Crist
If Tom Cruise keeps acting weird on the front pages then you may have to deduct 20% off this one.
You're being generous. MI3 is going to COMPLETELY bomb.

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