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Author Topic: Your choice of five films this year. Kamakshipalya Dhananjay Expert Film Handler Posts: 190 From: Bangalore, India Registered: Aug 2002 posted 04-14-2004 02:55 AM                     Well, this is not about guessing the range of grosses for any particular film. Nor is this about agreeing with any estimate for a film. The theatrical grosses just last year breached the 9 billion mark and it remains to see how this year fares – whether 2004 will establish a lead over 2003 in terms of total grosses considering that there is an increase in the number of films releasing this year and also that there is much increase in the average price of admission this year. So, let us gauge what expectations exhibitors in these forums have for what lies ahead – please state a) Your choice of five films that will release between this day and Dec.31,2004 that b) will individually gross not less than 150 Million and c) the combined grosses for the five films you so list shall not be less than 1 billion d) no need to predict grosses for each film you list – just that you prepare a list means you predict no more than b) and c) together. You may always go ahead and state your estimates individually for each film you list e) exclude all films that are currently in limited release but are scheduled to or could widen later f) no requirement that whether for b) or c) above, the gross for one or more films you list should accrue not beyond 2004 g) exclude all films that have no tentative release dates specified though the month of release could be closely expected – like for AVIATOR whose release date is not known though Nov,2004 is expected to be it. Here is my list (in no particular order of expected individual gross taking) : a) Troy b) Spider-Man 2 c) The Village d) Alexander e) The Polar Express You see, if you were hesitant to participate in earlier discussions on grosses, you may wish to note there is greater flexibility here. Many people could give their lists and several among them could be right. After all, I think it is not very important that one be very right – it is important, however, not to care whether you could be right.  |  IP: Logged John T. Hendrickson, Jr Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 889 From: Freehold, NJ, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 04-14-2004 09:40 AM                     No disrespect here, but I learned a long time ago that what I often thought would be a great release fell flat on it's face, and vice versa. I've come to believe that maybe the old method of throwing darts works best. Pass on this one and leave it to others with a crystal ball that is not as cloudy as mine.  |  IP: Logged Mike Blakesley Film God Posts: 12767 From: Forsyth, Montana Registered: Jun 99 posted 04-14-2004 12:47 PM                        When I get time, I'll post a list of five randomly selected movies. Then at the end of the year, I'll edit the list to reflect the top five moneymakers in order, and I'll look like a frickin' genius! But before I do that, I'll go out on a limb and say that any such list that doesn't include the upcoming Harry Potter and Shrek movies is uhh, probably not going to be very accurate. [ 04-15-2004, 11:43 AM: Message edited by: Mike Blakesley ]  |  IP: Logged Kamakshipalya Dhananjay Expert Film Handler Posts: 190 From: Bangalore, India Registered: Aug 2002 posted 04-15-2004 02:39 AM                     The flexibility I speak of is precisely this – you do not have to merely go with what everybody else thinks will do well. For you are not asked to list the biggest five earners of the year. You may list 5 films that, when the year closes, may even become the five that have no place in the top 5 films of the year. Individually, each film that you list will need to gross not less than 150 million. That means, if one film in your list earns a lot while the rest merely cross 150 million each, you could see you have guessed it all right. REMEMBER AGAIN – YOU ARE NOT TO STATE THE FIVE BIGGEST EARNERS OF THE YEAR HENCE.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 04-15-2004 01:22 PM                     I agree with John that it is pretty tough to pick the winners. I've watched Premiere Magazine do it with their Summer Movie issue and seen lots of their bit hit predictions turn up dead wrong. I don't have a current issue of Box Office Magazine laying around so I cannot see what the entire release schedule looks like for the rest of the year. But here are five films I think may do pretty well. 1. "The Incredibles" Pixar/Disney - November Pixar is pretty dependable on creating great movies and I've been looking forward to this film ever since seeing the teaser last year (on "Finding Nemo"). I'm not sure I want to go out on a limb and predict this one will be the year's box office champ. And that's only because I don't want to jinx it. 2. "Spiderman 2" Sony - June This has the potential of being better (a lot better hopefully) than the first one. The trailer certainly makes it look promising. 3. "Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban" WB - June No brainer. This one has a huge built-in market. 4. "Shrek 2" Dreamworks/PDI - May This sequel will really have to suck badly to not cross the $150 million mark. 5. "Troy" WB - May I'm pretty sure this movie will at least make $150 million. Wolfgang Petersen is an excellent filmmaker and this show has a formidable cast. The only obstacle really is how well Petersen and screenwriter David Benioff will adapt the Homer epic to the screen. ------- This could be one possibly for a different thread. But does anyone reading this have any suspicions on what will be box office duds in 2004? Here a few of my hunches. "The Day After Tomorrow" Sure, there will be some great visuals. But I have a nasty feeling the show is going to suck anyway. "I, Robot" I really want this movie to be great especially since Alex Proyas ("Dark City" and "The Crow") directed it. But the trailer has me thinking it will just suck ass instead. Issac Asimov's classic science fiction story should not be window dressing for a Will Smith comedy star vehicle. "Alien versus Predator" The whole thing sounds pretty stupid. I predict fans will just prefer to stick to playing the videogame. "Garfield" Something is just lost in translation with making Garfield a 3D cgi character with realistic fur. I don't buy it. Not sure other customers will either. "King Arthur" Just a guess. Who knows? It could be a great flick. Antoine Fuqua did a great job with "Training Day" but there's a chance he may be well out of his element directing a medieval big budget picture largely cast with not very well known European actors.  |  IP: Logged Kyle McEachern Expert Film Handler Posts: 165 From: San Francisco, CA Registered: Feb 2004 posted 04-15-2004 01:44 PM                 If Alien vs. Predator flops, I can only see it happening as a result of incomprehensibly bad filmmaking. Every time I'm talking to people about upcoming movies, one of them invariably mentions AvP, and at least one other person makes a comment like 'I've been waiting for this movie for 10 years'...even if it's a horrific and terrible excuse for a movie, it's going to have major first and second week pulls, simply because nearly everybody I know between the ages of 18 and 28 has been waiting for it since the first AvP videogame came out. Plus, I don't think any of them really expect a great film...they just want to see the two beat each other up for 90 minutes, which is what I'm sure they'll get. King Arthur is a toss-up for me, but bringing in Keira Knightley to play Guinevere was a smart move, because she's become incredibly popular since Bend it Like Beckham and Pirates of the Caribbean. The trailers have, thus far, been promising, but I agree that Antoine Fuqua might be in over his head. If people see the trailer as just a fantasy-ish movie, it probably won't work out, but adding in the major battle scenes should give it some draw if it's marketed right, and from then it's up to word of mouth. Day After Tomorrow, I, Robot, and Garfield I agree with you though. Those all made me cringe while watching the trailer.  |  IP: Logged Darryl Spicer Film God Posts: 3250 From: Lexington, KY, USA Registered: Dec 2000 posted 04-15-2004 02:00 PM                    I am not going to do the rest of the year picks but here is what I think will be the possable summer hits. Not taking any bets on it though. 1, Spiderman 2 2, Harry Potter 3 3, Shrek 2 4, I, Robot 5, The Day After Tomorrow 6, The Bourne Supremecy 7, The Stepford Wives 8, Garfield 9, Van Helsing 10, Troy The Following I think have the potential to do over $150 million but probably will do less. 1, Sky Captain 2, Around the world in 80 Days 3, King Arthur 4, The Village 5, Alien Vs. Predator 6, The Manchurian Candidate 7, Chronicles of Riddick 8, Anchorman 9, Raising Helen 10, The Princess Diaries 2 The following will probably flop or not make it over or close to $150 Million. 1, Soul Plane 2, Mindhunters 3, Dodgeball 4, Thunderbirds 5, The Exorcist: the Beginning The following may be sleepers. 1, The Notebook 2, Two Brothers 3, A Cinderella Story The Following is just one big huge question mark. Catwoman  |  IP: Logged Jeremy Fuentes Mmmm, Dr. Pepper! Posts: 1168 From: Corpus Christi, TX United States Registered: Jan 2004 posted 04-15-2004 02:08 PM                     I think Darryls top 5 is right on the money. I think Chronicles of Riddick should be in top 10 instead of Stepford Wives. But thats just me. But unlike Darryl, I'll bet on it. I bet Brad a Film-Tech shirt that these are right. The top 5 that is. If I lose, he can have my old Cinemark neon bowtie.  |  IP: Logged Ron Lacheur Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 650 From: British Columbia, Canada Registered: Feb 2002 posted 04-15-2004 03:46 PM                     I, Robot is apparently not even true to the book. It takes the rules from the book and the title. Everything else is new material.  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 04-15-2004 05:32 PM                     quote: If Alien vs. Predator flops, I can only see it happening as a result of incomprehensibly bad filmmaking. "Alien3" and "Alien Ressurection" both featured tons and tons of bad filmmaking. And that's in spite of both installments having pretty inventive directors. "Alien3" was one of the most poorly paced movies I think I've ever seen, and David Fincher has spent the better part of a decade trying to live down that one and rebuild his reputation with movies like "Seven," "The Game" and "Fight Club." French Director, Jean-Pierre Jeunet made the strange and original "Cité des Enfants Perdus/City of Lost Children" (along with "Delicatessen"). But "Alien Ressurection" just had some outright embarassingly bad moments in it. The show was even worse than "Alien3". I chalk up this bad tradition on the "Alien" series to creative meddling from both the studio brass and stars. They hire an inventive director only to tie his hands on the project. Those guys probably say, "make our stupid, shitty ideas come out good, director-for-hire-guy." With those conditions set, I expect "Alien Vs. Predator" to be pretty much a dud. It might grab a younger adult audience for a week or two, but I strongly doubt it will cross the $100 million mark or even come close to it.  |  IP: Logged John T. Hendrickson, Jr Jedi Master Film Handler Posts: 889 From: Freehold, NJ, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 04-15-2004 07:26 PM                     I'd like to see 'um all do 100 million. Then they could send ALL of us to Show West next year.  |  IP: Logged Kamakshipalya Dhananjay Expert Film Handler Posts: 190 From: Bangalore, India Registered: Aug 2002 posted 04-29-2004 02:19 AM                     My prediction for B.O. disappointments this year. 1. The Day After Tomorrow 2. Alien V Predator 3. King Arthur 4. Harry Potter And The Prisoner of Azbakan 5. Shrek 2 6. Garfield 7. I,Robot 8. Skycaptain And The World of Tomorrow 9. Around the World in 80 days 10.Van Helsing. I mean, most of these films will have to struggle to make it past 100 million. Most will not make it at all. The few which do will be very glad to have breached that mark and will give up quickly after that. 1. The Day After Tomorrow. This movie looks like it will do more business outside the US and the Canada. Releasing in a record number of countries on the same day as the US, it is being heavily promoted in many parts of Asia and what could hurt this film's business in the US could be its weak scientific base. I dont predict record business even for Asia. While the special effects are somewhat dazzling, they dont seem to be occuring in a realistic context at all - not even in a make believe way. Roland Emmerich will need another film to prove he is a successful director or that he once was. And Fox will need a different film to break their B.O. drought. 2. Alien V Predator. Not even very young children seem to be able to take this joke of a movie seriously. This one will seriously challenge The Alamo and will, most likely, beat it to the billing for the 'biggest mistake of 2004 or beyond'. 3. King Arthur. This film seems like it is one more addition to the slate of period films hitting the screens this summer. Looks like a excellent recyling of great sequences from successful films, I guess few people will see any need to watch this hotpotch. The director of 'Training Day' making this 'period' film appears like a bad orientation or turn. I mean, what is the connection between 'Training Day' and 'King Arthur' ? And the 'Jerry Bruckheimer' tag will probably do no good to this film - except perhaps a wide release. And a quick recall from theatres after that. 4. Harry Potter And the Prisoner of Azbakan. There was a significant dip for Part 2 in relation to Part 1. I think Part 3 will preserve and hasten this tradition. There is no safe formula really these days - however, people at Warner Bros. seem to seriously believe they will always have one.Like everyone else before them, they too will be woken up from this fantasy they carefully nourish. Also this Summer, Kids dont have to try hard to stay away from this film. There are plenty other films for them and time will tell this. 5. Shrek 2 Did Shrek 1 leave that room for a sequel ? I guess not. I think the characters created with this film are not enduring really. To force that endurance is going to spoil the fun and I think this is precisely the fate that awaits this sequel. Will disappoint. 6. Garfield. Could this be the film you never need see ? Probably yes. A bad idea and a movie, whose time once came and is now all gone. Will terribly disappoint. And Paramount Pictures will realise this mostly before it becomes all too obvious to them. 7. I, Robot. Promotions are good in that the trailers tell you everything about this film. And the trailers tell you clearly that this is a bad film. Nobody will buy this idea of a 'killer Robot' for a comedy film. There is no exotic element here unlike the 'Men in Black' series. And the special effects are hardly inviting. But of all things, why did they present in the trailers, the scene of a Robot winking its eye mischievously ? 8. Skycaptain and the World of Tomorrow. Now, what is this film about ? I did not understand anything from the trailers and the trailers show this film is just an excuse/pretext to spend some dollars on a FX project. 9. Around the world in 80 days. Jackie Chan, you are getting older and every new stunt of yours, people in the western world are forced to view with the kind of concern they would apply for viewing an elderly person's adventures and in doing so, all spontaniety is lost in how you are seen. This factor will hurt this film. 10. Van Helsing. A sheer nonsense. These kind films have always been. Only that few films really preserved the deceitful tradition of making you feel there is something really in such films. Van Helsing will not be one of them. In fact, if people are waiting for the realisation that they have been watching trash all along and expecting more of it, this film could just be the flick that will deliver this sacred realiastion to the masses.  |  IP: Logged Jeremy Fuentes Mmmm, Dr. Pepper! Posts: 1168 From: Corpus Christi, TX United States Registered: Jan 2004 posted 04-29-2004 06:42 AM                     quote: Kamakshipalya Dhananjay B.O. disappointments this year. 1. The Day After Tomorrow--WRONG. 4. Harry Potter And The Prisoner of Azbakan--WRONG. 5. Shrek 2--DEFINITELY WRONG. 7. I,Robot--WRONG. 10.Van Helsing.--MAYBE, BUT MOST LIKELY WRONG.  |  IP: Logged Richard Greco Phenomenal Film Handler Posts: 1180 From: Plant City, FL Registered: Nov 2003 posted 04-29-2004 08:27 AM                     quote: Kamakshipalya Dhananjay Nobody will buy this idea of a 'killer Robot' for a comedy film Dude, Who ever said this was a comedy? This is NOT a comedy. It is an action film. Dodgeball, is a comedy. Not this. Also, according to boxofficemojo.com, HP2 grossed $261,988,482 in the US and $614,700,000 overseas as of today. HP1 did $317,575,550 in the US and $658,900,000 overseas as of today. HP3 WILL NOT be a flop. Shrek did Total Gross: $267,665,011 + Overseas Gross: $214,998,756 Highly unlikely that it will flop with the sequel. The Day After Tomorrow....This will easily break 150million I have seen do many people in my theatres say when the trailer comes on..."I wanna see that one!!" KD, I don't know where you are getting your info from, but you really need to take a hint and see what people are liking...not what you may or may not like. BTW, my top 5 list is the same as Darryl's  |  IP: Logged Bobby Henderson "Ask me about Trajan." Posts: 10973 From: Lawton, OK, USA Registered: Apr 2001 posted 04-29-2004 12:00 PM                     I have a bad feeling "Van Helsing" will flop. Why? Check out the end of the trailer. Van's long coat is supposed to be flowing in the wind. Instead, it is just flapping like a wood door. Very fake and cheap looking. Embarrasing. Overall, the show looks like it will just be several action set pieces with Van fighting and defeating a well known monster in each segment, with Dracula being the last to go.  |  IP: Logged

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