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Topic: DVD vs BR-DVD -- live together 4 how long?

Frank Angel
Film God

Posts: 5305
From: Brooklyn NY USA
Registered: Dec 1999

posted 10-21-2008 11:06 PM

Obviously Blu-Ray DVDs will eventually replace standard DVDs, but when....in a year, two? How long will they live side-by-side? Presently, is EVERY video title released these days done in both formats or are some titles still released only in S-DVD? I know VHS lived along side DVD for quite awhile, but that was because VHS still offered recording capability where DVDs didn't. That issue won't be a factor with BR-DVD.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 10-21-2008 11:23 PM

Not everything is released in Blu-Ray as of yet.

Studios would be crazy to try to kill off regular DVD at this point - there are still millions upon millions of players out there. I would say maybe 3 to 5 years, you'll start seeing a lot of titles only coming out in BR. I still have my original DVD player - a Pioneer from somewhere around 2003 or so.

I haven't been in an electronics store in a long time -- can you even still buy regular DVD players?

quote: Frank Angel
I know VHS lived along side DVD for quite awhile, but that was because VHS still offered recording capability where DVDs didn't.

That's not why they coexisted. It was for the same reason as above -- there were so many VHS players out there. Most people never used their VCRs for recording -- just to play rental movies. Once the machines started getting older and people wanted to "upgrade," they got phased out of use and that's when VHS tapes went by the wayside.

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John Hawkinson
Film God

Posts: 2273
From: Cambridge, MA, USA
Registered: Feb 2002

posted 10-21-2008 11:24 PM

I think the calculus goes the other way. Consumers had a compelling reason to adopt DVD over VHS (several). Quality was MUCH better, you didn't have to rewind tapes, and whiz-bang extra features.

BD (BluRay Disc) doesn't have that kind of advantage. Yeah, resolution is better, but not by the same quantum leap that DVD was over VHS. And the whiz-bang extra features just aren't that compelling (BD Live? Umm...).

Consequently, most consumers won't upgrade from DVD to BD.

So I expect BD will run in parallel with DVD for the foreseeable mid-term future, perhaps 5 to 15 years.

At some point BD decks might get cheap enough that there's no reason to buy a DVD player, and then everyone will buy BD, and DVD will get phased out. Don't count on that any time soon.

--jhawk

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Joe Redifer
You need a beating today

Posts: 12859
From: Denver, Colorado
Registered: May 99

posted 10-21-2008 11:37 PM

quote: J-Hawk
BD (BluRay Disc) doesn't have that kind of advantage. Yeah, resolution is better, but not by the same quantum leap that DVD was over VHS.

That is perhaps one of the most downright idiotic, forehead-splappingest things I have ever read on this forum. Let's see... a jump from standard definition tape to standard definition disc vs a jump from standard definition disc to HDTV. Yeah. I think HDTV is more of a "quantum leap" jump.

quote: J-Hawk
Consequently, most consumers won't upgrade from DVD to BD.

Yes they will. But first, they need HDTVs. People will want high resolution movies to go along with their high resolution TVs. DVD does not cut it in this area. Whoever invented DVD surely must be a registered sex offender.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 10-22-2008 12:24 AM

At the beginning of 2008 more than 30 million homes in America had at least one HDTV set. It's obvious several million more will have been added to that total before the February 2009 cut-off of analog TV broadcasts.

The point is this: there is already a very ample install base of HDTVs for Blu-ray to exploit.

Once people buy a HDTV and see how much better HD content can look on it versus standard definition they'll get spoiled to HD very quickly. In addition, SD content often looks HORRIBLE blown up on big screen HDTV sets -even with various up-conversion techniques applied to the video. Anamorphic DVD is only pass-able because of the anamorphic widescreen enhancement.

quote: Mike Blakesley
I haven't been in an electronics store in a long time -- can you even still buy regular DVD players?

Yes. But there's no profit in selling them. DVD players will soon disappear in high end electronics stores (if they're not doing so already). As cheap as DVD players are, it only makes sense for stores like Wal-Mart to carry the things. A sales person working on commission in a store like Sears, Circuit City or Ultimate Electronics would be losing money by wasting any breath explaining a cheap DVD player to a customer.

I think standalone DVD players will vanish from retail stores, including Wal-Mart within 2 years. There's already rumors of $149 Blu-ray players for Black Friday in a few weeks. Chinese made Blu-ray players will hit the market in 2009. By 2010 you'll see a good number of BD players for under $100.

Movies offered for sale and rent on DVD will hang around quite a bit longer -at least another 3-5 years at the minimum, maybe even longer.

quote: Joe Redifer
Let's see... a jump from standard definition tape to standard definition disc vs a jump from standard definition disc to HDTV. Yeah. I think HDTV is more of a "quantum leap" jump.

1920 X 1080 based HD has SIX TIMES the pixel count of 480p on DVD. That is a much bigger jump in resolution than the mere doubling of pixel count in the leap from VHS to DVD. Color quality with Blu-ray is also dramatically improved over DVD.

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David Stambaugh
Film God

Posts: 4021
From: Eugene, Oregon
Registered: Jan 2002

posted 10-22-2008 09:35 AM

quote:
A sales person working on commission in a store like Circuit City

Just as a point of information, Circuit City sales people haven't been on commission for quite a while now, since around the time CC fired all their most experienced staff as a cost-cutting measure.

Looks like that didn't help them much either since they're on the brink of mass store closures, layoffs, and bankruptcy.

Circuit City tries to avoid bankruptcy

Who's Next was the title of a classic rock album from The Who, of course, back in the days of vinyl records, but today when that phrase is mentioned, it's more likely to be referring to the list of troubled companies on the verge of bankruptcy.

Big box retailer Circuit City (NYSE: CC) may be next to declare themselves insolvent, although they are said to be pulling out all the stops to avoid that outcome.

Trading over $8 a share just one year ago, Circuit City's share price has been in steady decline and has fallen off the cliff lately to settle around 45 cents per share. Circuit City has, according to a Market Watch report, been in talks to secure a line of credit to cover operating expenses while in receivership (in anticipation of a bankruptcy declaration), but the lack of available credit in the current economy has left them with no takers willing to finance them through reorganizational bankruptcy.

This leaves the company with little choice other than scaling back operations and liquidating whatever it can for emergency cash. Initial statements suggest that 150 of Circuit City's 1484 stores in the US and Canada may be shut down. As recently as September you will recall that Circuit had announced a slowdown in the planned store openings for the coming year. It seems that wasn't nearly enough.

In addition to the closings, Circuit City may be liquidating up to $350 million in inventory, likely at fire sale pricing. If you're in the market for a big screen TV and you have enough cash left over after filling your gas tank, this might be your opportunity. This hints at one of the causes of Circuit City's troubles. During a period when Americans are uncertain about their personal income, and when they see their net worth falling everyday not only with real estate values, but also with falling 401k and other stock market investments, they are much less inclined to purchase high ticket luxury items like fancy new appliances or entertainment systems. With companies like Circuit City now focusing on cost-cutting and reducing payroll, things are likely to get significantly worse before they get better.

Circuit City is perhaps the earliest and hardest hit by the current slowdown as they were already losing customers to competitors. Having fumbled around with redesigning store layouts and sales structures, Circuit City has been unable to find a retail model that draws customers. No detailed estimate of the number of employees likely to be released was available although the Associated Press, citing unidentified sources put the number in the thousands. My own estimate, based on 150 stores shutting down would put the number between four and five thousand workers. If the remaining stores and corporate operations also pare staff the number could go higher. Circuit City currently employs about 45,000 people, although that number includes both US and Canada operations.

It is not known how many of the reportedly closing stores are in the United States and how many are in Canada. However, one has to wonder how much of an effect this sort of spill over of US economic troubles will have on Canada going forward. If other multi-nationals begin paring operations there as well, we could see the two trading partners reinforcing each other's decline.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 10-22-2008 10:06 AM

quote: David Stambaugh
Just as a point of information, Circuit City sales people haven't been on commission for quite a while now, since around the time CC fired all their most experienced staff as a cost-cutting measure.

That's kind of surprising considering how much the sales people at Circuit City try to hard sell you on over-priced Monster Cables and various warranty plans. Perhaps CC just makes them do that under the threat of being fired for not up-selling.

I think one of the chief problems with Circuit City is the company often builds stores in really odd locations. Stores like Best Buy and Ultimate Electronics are often next to huge malls or built within popular strip shopping centers while a lot of CC stores seem a little more out of the way and situation in somewhat lower priced real estate areas. It's rare that I find a CC store in a really good location.

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David Stambaugh
Film God

Posts: 4021
From: Eugene, Oregon
Registered: Jan 2002

posted 10-22-2008 01:31 PM

Best Buy isn't on commission either.

I bought a new 52" Samsung flat-panel a couple months ago. At the time amazon.com had the lowest price for a reputable online seller, several hundred dollars below BB and CC sale prices. I took a printout of the amazon price to BB, asked if they could meet it, and they said No Way, sorry. Took it to CC. Sales guy went and talked to the store manager, came back and said "Sure, we can meet that". Maybe that explains why BB is doing ok and CC is on the brink of bankruptcy.

DVD players seem to already be getting less and less floor space at big-box stores. BD is being pushed hard. Yet CC's selection of BD movies seems very limited. And retail pricing on BD stuff is a real turn-off to me as a consumer. I'm probably going to pull the trigger on a Sony BDP-S350 player soon, and make sure everyone likely to give me an Xmas gift gets a list of BD movies I'd like to own. [Smile]

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 10-22-2008 02:18 PM

quote: David Stambaugh
And retail pricing on BD stuff is a real turn-off to me as a consumer.

That's why I buy most of mine online at sites like Amazon. I'll only buy at a retail store when the pricing is good.

The last BD I bought at a retail store was L.A. Confidential; Hastings had it for $19. Previous to that, I paid $15 each in July for BD copies of The Departed and Crimson Tide at Best Buy (they were among a number of movies in a 2 for $30 sales display). I've ordered 8 BD titles from Amazon since the beginning of August.

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Dominic Espinosa
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1172
From: Boulder Creek, CA.
Registered: Jan 2004

posted 10-22-2008 03:08 PM

Indeed, sales at those stores are influenced by the fear of job loss. No commission required.

I'm in agreement on the fact that BD and HD capable output devices are a massive spoiler. It's almost painful to watch DVD's anymore [Frown]

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 10-22-2008 04:10 PM

quote: Joe Redifer
Let's see... a jump from standard definition tape to standard definition disc vs a jump from standard definition disc to HDTV. Yeah. I think HDTV is more of a "quantum leap" jump.

While the improvement in picture quality is noted, I think Frank was referring to the overall jump in quality and convenience. Going from VHS to DVD, you got:

- Better picture
- Easier to skip around
- More features on the disk
- More time capacity on the disk
- More reliable equipment (fewer moving parts)
- No tangled tape
- Smaller and easier to store
- No rewinding
- Cheaper to ship (helps keep prices down)
- Can still use your standard TV and see a big difference

Whereas from DVD to BR, the only major change* is the improved picture, which you won't get full advantage of unless you spend another grand or more on a TV upgrade. VHS-to-DVD was a more "quantum leap, for sure.

*Yes, I know about the fancy menus and the interactive crap...those don't qualify as an "upgrade" in my book.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 10-22-2008 05:22 PM

quote: Mike Blakesley
Whereas from DVD to BR, the only major change* is the improved picture, which you won't get full advantage of unless you spend another grand or more on a TV upgrade.

Tens of millions of Americans have already been buying HDTV sets to get HD OTA broadcast channels and HD via cable or satellite. Blu-ray is a more recent, additional attraction for HDTV.

Blu-ray has other significant jumps above DVD in addition to the 6X more detailed image quality. Blu-ray has these features while DVD does not:

* Lossless, uncompressed and DVD-A quality high res audio.
* Lossy DD or DTS at maximum bit rates on nearly all BDs.
* 7.1 surround in LPCM, DTS-HD or Dolby TrueHD.
* 50GB BDs have over 5 times more capacity than 9.4GB DVDs.
* Even more features than DVD, often in HD.
* Exclusive features not found on DVD, like PIP commentaries.
* Superior in-movie menu navigation & in movie book marks.
* Contrary to popular belief, Blu-ray players and PS3 consoles can be connected to SD TV sets and down-convert Blu-ray video to those TV sets. Any BD player will also play DVDs and up-convert the video on them to a connected HDTV.

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Paul Mayer
Oh get out of it Melvin, before it pulls you under!

Posts: 3836
From: Albuquerque, NM
Registered: Feb 2000

posted 10-22-2008 06:31 PM

I'm guessing it will be about a 5-year co-existence era for DVD and BR as well.

Prices for both BR media and players are slowly coming down. I'm looking at the newly released Panasonic 1.1 machine (the DMP-BD30K) at $269.00 for myself. And while at Fry's I picked up the BR of Casino for $19.00. Looking to grab the new BR/DVD combo of Disney's Sleeping Beauty too before it goes on hiatus. And a BR Digital Video Essentials, and...

I'm also actively looking (finally) for an HD display for myself, since the Samsung 50" LED DLP I had access to went to my late roommate's parents. That machine was priced around $1100 and I'm trying to stay around that size and price range.

And so my BR collection begins (actually it began last year with the anime film The Wings of Honneamise). Once again I'll have a few discs in the collection before I have the means to play them, just as it was with the CDs, LDs, and DVDs.

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 10-22-2008 06:50 PM

Bobby - none of those features are what I would call major. Sure they're big improvments for somebody who is really into video, but for average schmucks who plunk down in front of a TV with a six pack, they'll never use or notice most of those items.

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Bobby Henderson
"Ask me about Trajan."

Posts: 10973
From: Lawton, OK, USA
Registered: Apr 2001

posted 10-22-2008 07:11 PM

The vastly improved audio capability isn't a major feature? I think it's nearly as important as the major leap in video quality. This is actually one area where Blu-ray is definitely delivering something superior to the quality of audio tracks played in theaters -even digital cinema equipped theaters. You can't get four channels of discrete surround (via 7.1) and lossless or uncompressed audio at commercial cinemas (although you should).

Some discs, such as Baraka, Dave Matthews & Tim Reynolds: Live at Radio City, Celine Dion: A New Day and AC/DC: No Bull feature DVD Audio quality 24-bit 96kHz multichannel audio tracks. Blu-ray actually much more potential to deliver next-generation, superior to CD quality music to far more listeners than DVD Audio or Super Audio CD could ever manage.

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