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Topic: Noted at ShoWest: Film could be gone in 5 to 8 years

Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 03-21-2010 08:58 PM

Here's a quote from a Screen Daily article which we got via email:

quote:
“There’s no question that some film theatres aren’t going to make it,” the National Association Of Theater Owner’s president John Fithian said. “It’s a real concern and we’ve established initiatives that specifically target smaller operations. The Cinema Buying Group has been set up to address the real problems they face in terms of financing. They’re meeting on the last day to debate the roll-out. We expect 260 members and it will be the biggest meeting during the conference.”

Fithian estimated that in five to eight years distributors will stop making 35mm prints. Pacific Theaters’ (Jerry) Foreman, citing such factors as production logistics, maintenance and inevitable modifications, believed that time is more likely at least ten years away. Regardless, it’s close enough for those affected to feel the pressure of conversion or death.

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Adam Martin
I'm not even gonna point out the irony.

Posts: 3686
From: Dallas, TX
Registered: Nov 2000

posted 03-21-2010 09:12 PM

Boogedy-boogedy-boogedy!

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Randy Stankey
Film God

Posts: 6539
From: Erie, Pennsylvania
Registered: Jun 99

posted 03-21-2010 10:06 PM

Weren't they saying the same thing five to eight years ago? [Shrug]

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Paul Mayer
Oh get out of it Melvin, before it pulls you under!

Posts: 3836
From: Albuquerque, NM
Registered: Feb 2000

posted 03-21-2010 10:27 PM

Heck, I'm still waiting for my flying car...

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Mike Frese
Master Film Handler

Posts: 465
From: Holts Summit, MO
Registered: Jun 2007

posted 03-21-2010 10:28 PM

IMHO, if you are a comfortable full-time first run you are fine for 5 years with just film. If you are a move-over without any competition, you are fine as well.

What I fail to see, is why the studios will be kind and gracious to help out financing the small theaters. Would we if we were in their shoes?

In the KC district full-time first runs account for more than 90% (sometimes 95%) of a movie's gross. (This data from Rentrak).

Keep in mind that 2 years ago, the CBG plan for helping seasonal first-run and discount houses would be help them get hand-me-down equipment when the bigger theaters replace their equipment. Who wants 5 year chain equipment?

For me, I believe the deadline is 3 years away. Which one reason why I believe I am going to take the Tech 3d route.

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Paul Mayer
Oh get out of it Melvin, before it pulls you under!

Posts: 3836
From: Albuquerque, NM
Registered: Feb 2000

posted 03-21-2010 10:28 PM

Heck, I'm still waiting for one of those flying cars we were all promised by now...

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Bernie Anderson Jr
Master Film Handler

Posts: 435
From: Woodbridge, New Jersey
Registered: Apr 2000

posted 03-21-2010 11:01 PM

hahahaha! yeah right! I remember hearing that crap when episode 1 came out in 1999.

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Elise Brandt
Expert Film Handler

Posts: 160
From: Kuusankoski, FIN/ Kouvola, Finland
Registered: Dec 2009

posted 03-21-2010 11:49 PM

I do believe about 10 years is all it takes, but I'm already on the "dark side". Only one 35mm left.

It makes sense for the studios to finance the rollout on their part, the deal will only be just as expensive as things are now, ten years from now and then they're off the hook and getting things done cheap. Isn't every VPF deal negotiated now 10 years long? Maintaining almost all the theaters and cutting their own costs (even if in a few years' time) is a very attractive prospect.

I fully expect some small theaters will fall. But will they fall because they can't make the transition, or because they didn't try?

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Eric Robinson
Jedi Master Film Handler

Posts: 538
From: Santa Rosa, CA
Registered: Jan 2005

posted 03-21-2010 11:56 PM

Here you go Paul

This is actually a flying saucer style car

Now ... its time to switch to digital.

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Ian Parfrey
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1049
From: Imbil Australia 26 deg 27' 42.66" S 152 deg 42' 23.40" E
Registered: Feb 2009

posted 03-22-2010 01:25 AM

How much of a kickback is Fithian getting for blowing the Digital horn?

quote:
Fithian estimated that in five to eight years distributors will stop making 35mm prints.

Prints will cease being made when there are no 35mm screens to show them, otherwise he's talking through his arse. Additionally, I wonder if he will be trumpeting the Digital horn when, in his "5 to 8 years time", by which time exhibitors will be forced to update their digital projectors AGAIN.

This guy is supposed to be supporting exhibitors, not forcing some to the wall due to being unable to afford the conversion. Making the small guy feel like he's lost the race already really sucks and if I was one of the small guys with a NATO membership, they would be told where to stick it in no uncertain terms.

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Robert E. Allen
Phenomenal Film Handler

Posts: 1078
From: Checotah, Oklahoma
Registered: Jul 2002

posted 03-22-2010 02:55 AM

Hey Guys, I grew up in this business and started professionally in 1950. I've been through the last 3D craze, Smell-o-vision, VistaVision, CinemaScope, PanaVision, 70mm, electronically controlled theatre seats (I forgot what that was called) and every techno-gadget they can throw at us. Some came and went and some have resurfaced again. But I think the only thing that will last is surround sound, the wide screen processes (assuming digital can duplicate them) and digital projection. But it will be around much longer that the so-called experts are predicting. None of the studios want to face a class action suit by the small town exhibitors for forcing them out of business.

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Louis Bornwasser
Film God

Posts: 4441
From: prospect ky usa
Registered: Mar 2005

posted 03-22-2010 05:01 AM

Ian has it exactly!

Fithian predicted the "last day for film was Dec 2008." I was physically present in the room when he said this from the podium. He was wrong. Louis

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Mark Gulbrandsen
Resident Trollmaster

Posts: 16657
From: Music City
Registered: Jun 99

posted 03-22-2010 09:31 AM

quote: Ian Parfrey
Prints will cease being made when there are no 35mm screens to show them, otherwise he's talking through his arse.

Actually if you stop to analyze this situation the Screen Daily Article Is Correct!

Sony is building about 400 of their projectors a week. It will take about three years for Regal and AMC to complete their conversion. 4K DLP will be available this time next year according to people from Christie and BARCO I talked to at the show. That means another two years and Cinemark will be all DLP. That are the only screens in this country that actually matter. Once regal and AMC are done converting 6000 less film prints will be struck, drop another 2700 prints off what is still left being made when Cinemark is done converting and the per film print cost will sky rocket to above 5K per print!. What will ultimately happen is that the studios will balk at striking prints for marginal locations because those prints will now be way more expensive and they may not recover the print costs from some locations. Hence some theaters will not be able to get film any longer and will be forced into digital or to shut down. So yes, I believe they are 100% correct although I believe it will happen quicker than the time period they say... the economy is getting better which is going to speed it up and the generation 2 projectors are here and available now.

Louis... You forgot "Moore's Law"... which happens to pertain to this technology big time!

Mark

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Mike Blakesley
Film God

Posts: 12767
From: Forsyth, Montana
Registered: Jun 99

posted 03-22-2010 10:48 AM

quote: Robert E. Allen
a class action suit by the small town exhibitors for forcing them out of business

I doubt that'd happen...if we can't save up for digital, we certainly can't afford a high-priced lawyer!

I fully expect to convert to digital here. The small question is "when," but the big question for me is 3-D. If we had 2 screens it'd be a no brainer, but I fear "turning off" that portion of the audience who doesn't like 3-D and/or isn't willing to pay $12 or more for a ticket, and not being able to offer the 2-D alternative.

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Bernie Anderson Jr
Master Film Handler

Posts: 435
From: Woodbridge, New Jersey
Registered: Apr 2000

posted 03-22-2010 12:19 PM

Personally,

NATO is nothing more to exhibitors than Congress is to the American People. Everything I see about them does not protect the independent exhibitor.

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