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Corona Virus Effect On Theatres In The USA

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  • #91
    This is from the concert and touring space, but is also related to restaurants, and thus could be extrapolated to theatre and cinema, and public gatherings in general.


    https://www.metalsucks.net/2020/04/1...-the-earliest/
    Healthcare Expert Says Concerts Won’t Return Until “Fall 2021 at the Earliest”

    This much most people agree upon: reopening our economy in the short-term would have disastrous consequences. It is imperative we keep our businesses shuttered as the worst effects of the coronavirus take their toll on human lives across the globe.
    But in a recent feature in The New York Times, a panel of experts discussed when and how we should start thinking about ramping up the economy, and the trade-offs that will emerge as that happens: how can we continue to do everything we can to save lives while also making sure people can get back to work to provide for themselves and their families? When will schools reopen? When will mass public gatherings like sporting events and, to our point, concerts, become a part of life again?
    One of the panelists, the bioethicist Zeke Emanuel, is vice provost for global initiatives and director of the Healthcare Transformation Institute at the University of Pennsylvania, host of a new podcast about coronavirus, “Making the Call,” and author of the forthcoming book Which Country Has the World’s Best Health Care? Emanuel has a plan for how to gradually reopen the economy that keeps public health at the forefront, and believes that if certain protocols are followed and testing can be rapidly expanded, the current restrictions can begin to be eased in June. The panel discussed what would happen after that.

    Here is what Emanuel had to say about when he thinks people will be allowed to attend concerts and sporting events, as well as gathering in lower density places like restaurants (emphasis added by MetalSucks):
    “Restarting the economy has to be done in stages, and it does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back. Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner. Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.
    “Restaurants where you can space tables out, maybe sooner. In Hong Kong, Singapore and other places, we’re seeing resurgences when they open up and allow more activity. It’s going to be this roller coaster, up and down. The question is: When it goes up, can we do better testing and contact tracing so that we can focus on particular people and isolate them and not have to reimpose shelter-in-place for everyone as we did before?”
    Emanuel’s opinion echoes that of metal booking agent Daniel DeFonce, who expressed this week that he doesn’t see touring full-scale returning before 2021.
    As sad as it is to consider, unfortunately we have to consider the possibility that Emanuel is correct, which would mean many of the tours we’ve seen being rescheduled for the coming fall will not happen. We would very much like it if Emanuel were wrong, but we’re just going to have to wait and see what happens.

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    • #92
      I wonder how many of the big chains will be willing to pay the costs to keep their premises and equipment in place and in working order for over a year with no revenue at all. I think most of their locations are on rented property (malls, etc.) so there will be some high fixed costs for rent and property taxes.

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      • #93
        I wonder how many of the big chains will be willing to pay the costs to keep their premises and equipment in place
        I think one of the online articles about the possible AMC implosion said they had somewhere over $200million per month in lease costs, utility bills, insurance payments, & business taxes, etc. That's a pretty big burden to shoulder when you've got almost zero revenue coming in.

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        • #94
          On the other hand, I suppose the landlords will have a reason to work out some kind of a deal with them to stay if possible. It's not like there will be a big line-up of other outfits wanting to rent those storefronts.

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          • #95
            The issue is, some business are able to reopen any day. Some need a lot of prepping. You can't just kick-boot a trade-fair, for example. Also, once it takes off again, locations will be extremely busy and not everyone will get a early slot. Some businesses/partners needed to get going may not exist anymore.

            - Carsten

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            • #96
              Again, AMC declared bankruptcy in the late 1990's as a result of borrowing money for over expansion. In bankruptcy, they got rid of most of their debt, closed unprofitable location and stripped the closed theatres of all equipment and seats to make it more expensive for someone else to reopen (except for leases where the property owner owned the contents). They came out of bankruptcy with a lot less overhead and expenses. I expect that if they file, they will do the same again.

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              • #97
                . . . and stripped the closed theaters of all equipment and seats to make it more expensive for someone else to reopen .
                Just anecdotally, about 20yrs ago I worked for a while at a broadcast TV network operations & switching center. The corporation was downsizing and the building ( a former phone company building) had been sold. Our control room was going to be moved into space at another building that the TV people already occupied on the other side of town, but it was going to take a long time to build & test the new room, and then move all the fiber, coax & audio tie-lines and circuits over to the new place.

                So, for over a year, the control room I worked in was the only tenant, located in the basement of an otherwise empty 8 story building. One day I decided to go on a 'scavenger hunt' in the abandoned part of the building and I was very surprised to discover that on all the other floors, not only had all the power been turned off, and a lot of the electrical infrastructure had wires cut or completely ripped out, but all of the porcelain sinks, toilets and water fountains had been smashed to bits. At first I thought vandals had maybe gotten inside and trashed the place. But when I asked the corporate real estate folks about it, I found out this was done intentionally. Apparently, the tax rate the owners paid on the building was at least partially determined by the rentable square footage. By destroying the electrical & plumbing infrastructure on the upper floors, thus making them "uninhabitable", they either weren't taxed , or perhaps taxed at a much lower rate, for the space on those floors.

                This really has nothing to do with the current topic, but I thought it was somewhat remotely related to your comment about removing equipment. ~~ That's all - - we can all move on now....
                Last edited by Jim Cassedy; 04-16-2020, 05:24 PM.

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                • #98
                  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/cine...ronavirus.html

                  Cinemark's tentative plans for reopening July 1.

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                  • #99
                    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...g-plan-1290593

                    White house plans for reopening theatres.

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                    • Originally posted by Frank Cox View Post
                      On the other hand, I suppose the landlords will have a reason to work out some kind of a deal with them to stay if possible. It's not like there will be a big line-up of other outfits wanting to rent those storefronts.
                      Brick and mortar stores, for large parts, were already on the way out. All over the globe, you could see shopping streets and entire shopping malls see become abandoned, even before the cornonavirus crisis hit. While those landlords may choose to terminate the lease of those hard-struck theaters occupying their real-estate, the question remains what they're going to do with all that real estate anyway? Good luck filling the empty space left by throwing out a 16+ screen multiplex in the current economic situation...

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                      • One thing I haven't been able to find is what, exactly, constitutes "strict," "moderate," and "limited" physical distancing as it applies to movie theatres. I think it is important to define what each one means.

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                        • Would people even want to go to movies if they have to do things X, Y and Z to protect themselves from getting sick while they're there?

                          Most folks (and particularly those with kids) will stay out of theatres in those circumstances because why take a chance on getting sick just to watch a movie? Most people wouldn't think it was worth the risk.

                          How many people would buy a ticket if the advertising said, "It's so safe that there's only a 1% chance the roof will collapse while you're here."

                          I don't think the crowds will come back until we can (honestly) say it's just as safe as it was before so bring your date, sit where-ever you want and enjoy the movie, just like it was before. Until the, the balance of "is it worth it" comes down on the other side.

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                          • I don't think anybody really knows what the requirements would be...

                            I guess a basic requirement would be spacing between patrons, but how much? 1,5 meters or 6 feet? Do you keep rows empty between occupied rows? What if I go to the cinema with my partner? Can we sit together or do we need to distance two seats? What about waiting in-line for the theater to open? Do the seats need to be disinfected after every show? Do I need to wear gloves and a mask? Do we need to introduce shopping carts to keep distance for those waiting in line in front of the concession stand?

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                            • There is a lot of misunderstanding of what's happening.
                              Pandemic is defined as "an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population".
                              The probability in a "pandemic" is that almost everyone will be infected.
                              The "shutdown" and "social distancing" is entirely about reducing the infection rate (flattening the curve) so that critical care for the small percentage of COVID-19 cases that require it is available, avoiding rationing critical care to those most likely to survive and leaving those with a poor prognosis to die without intervention. The news reports do not mention this, but epidemiologists still expect that roughly all of us will get the disease sooner or later.
                              A widely available vaccine is probably at least a year away. There is a lot of money going into vaccine development but the process can only be sped up by skipping steps that identify side effects and other risks.
                              Until a vaccine has been administered to pretty much everyone, the disease will continue to spread until enough of the population has had it and developed immunity (there is some doubt that recovered people get immunity or for how long if they do) that the spread is greatly reduced by "herd immunity".
                              So... restrictions will be loosened slowly, in definite steps. I don't expect public events like sports, theatre, cinema, concerts, etc. will be possible this year - that will be one of the very last steps.

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                              • The news reports do not mention this, but epidemiologists still expect that roughly all of us will get the disease sooner or later.
                                This is the first place I"ve seen that.

                                I sure hope we aren't closed the rest of the year.... it would put most of us out of business. (I would hate for Richard Greenfield to be right with his "prognosis" for the industry.... he's basically a video cheerleader who obviously dislikes the exhibition business.)

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